Ahead of this week’s US GDP first estimate print and the PCE Price Index numbers, the US Dollar Index will likely be a watched market.
Buyers remain firmly at the wheel. YTD, we are nearly +5.0%, with April on track to close higher for a fourth consecutive month, up +1.5% MTD. And from a technical standpoint, further outperformance is on the table.
The USD/JPY currency pair recently refreshed multi-decade highs of ¥154.79, a move probing offers at channel resistance, taken from the high of ¥125.85. With resistance lacking here, this not only helps pave the way to test the mettle of ¥160.20 (highs from as far back as the 1990s) but also increases concerns about an intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ)....
We have an interesting technical picture unfolding on the NZD/USD at the moment. From the daily timeframe, it is evident that the currency pair has been underwater for the majority of this year. In fact, year to date, we are lower by -6.6%.
Further Selling?
Favouring bears at this point is the downtrend shaped by a series of lower lows and lower highs since...
Technical Picture Favours Bears
Week to date, against the US dollar (USD), the price of bitcoin (BTC) is down more than -7.0% and touching gloves with levels not seen since mid-March.
Technically, the longer-term picture exhibits overbought/overvalued conditions. Following the all-time high clocked in early March at $73,845, commitment from buyers has been...
Following today's mixed bag of employment and wages data, tomorrow’s attention is directed to the March UK CPI inflation release, scheduled to air at 7:00 am GMT+1.
Estimates Suggest Further Disinflation
Both headline and core (excludes food, energy, tobacco and alcohol) measures have surprised to the downside in the previous two releases and are expected to...
Another week, another record high for the precious metal.
The spot price of gold (XAU/USD) refreshed all-time highs at $2,431 last week, strengthened by expectations of US rate cuts, safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and central banks purchasing large stockpiles of gold.
However, sentiment soured on Friday, casting gold -1.2% lower...
The S&P 500 finished another week in negative territory, shedding -1.6% (-2.5% MTD). While it is clear that this market remains the domain of buyers, 90% of the upside in March has been reclaimed, and evidence is building for a deeper correction.
Deeper Correction Possible
Kicking things off from the monthly chart, following last week's all-time high of...
Sterling ended the week considerably lower against the US dollar, recording its largest one-week decline since July 2023 (-1.5%).
In light of the slew of UK economic data on the docket this week—wages, CPI inflation and retail sales—this will be a particularly key market to monitor.
Monthly Resistance Holding Firm
Price action on the monthly chart continues...
Following hotter-than-expected US CPI inflation numbers pulling the EUR/USD southbound yesterday, the currency pair is now testing the mettle of long-standing support ahead of today’s ECB rate decision.
While the central bank is unlikely to cut rates today, there is mounting speculation that we will see a 25bp cut at June’s policy-setting meeting, particularly...
Data came in broadly higher than expected for the March US CPI inflation print.
Higher-Than-Expected Reports on Three of the Four Major Prints
Year-on-year headline CPI inflation for March rose +3.5%, up from +3.2% in February and a touch higher than economists’ estimates of +3.4%. Of note, this follows a rise of +3.4% in December 2023, a rise of +3.1% in...
Market Pricing – Unlikely to Adjust Rates
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is poised to update policy later today at 2:45 pm GMT+1. Markets are currently pricing around a 16% probability of a 25bp cut at the upcoming meeting, with June pricing in -20bps of easing and July fully pricing in a -25bp cut.
Recent Macro Data
The most recent data to be aware of heading...
The spot price of gold (XAU/USD) concluded another week in positive territory, adding +4.3% and refreshing record pinnacles at $2,330/ounce amid expectations of lower rates this year, geopolitical tensions and speculative buying.
There’s no denying that the yellow metal is exhibiting an uptrend and has been since pencilling in a bottom around the $1,614 area in...
You will recall that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased its Policy Rate to +0.00%/0.10% in March, pulling the rate out of negative territory. While many, including the Research Team at FP Markets, expected the Japanese yen (JPY) to rally on the back of this, we instead witnessed a fall in the currency, consequently drawing the USD/JPY higher. Many desks labelled...
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently made the airwaves, delivering remarks on the economic outlook at Stanford Business School.
Key Takeaways from the Speech:
• The Fed Chief does not envisage easing policy until there is more confidence regarding the inflation picture but still believes it will be ‘appropriate’ to cut rates at ‘some point’ this year.
• Powell...
Apple and Microsoft: Which Stock Offers Greater Technical Potential?
Reading time: 7 minutes
Tech giants Apple (ticker: AAPL) and Microsoft (ticker: MSFT) both outperformed last year, adding 48.0% and 57.0%, respectively. Both are also part of the widely talked-about Magnificent Seven Stocks (includes Amazon , Nvidia , Meta Platforms , Tesla and Alphabet ...
ECB Dovish Stance
Recently, the ECB adopted more of a dovish stance.
ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the eurozone’s economy is in a disinflationary process and added that inflation is ‘making good progress’. Lagarde added that they are confident but ‘not sufficiently confident’ and commented that additional data is needed; more will be known in...
Year-to-Date (YTD) Outperformance
The technical landscape of longer-term flow on the EUR/CHF paints an interesting picture at the moment, poised to end the week higher for an eighth successive weekly session. Interestingly, the currency pair is up +5.4% (YTD), following the record low printed in late 2023 at CHF0.9254. You will also note that price has reclaimed...
