Following Friday’s huge miss in US jobs data – which triggered dollar selling, a bid in equities and bonds, and a sizeable dovish repricing in rates (markets are now implying 53bps of easing this year for the Fed funds target rate, with September fully priced in for a 25bp cut as opposed to November’s meeting prior to the release of the data) – the first full week...
Upcoming Earnings Release:
Walt Disney Company (ticker DIS) is scheduled to report earnings on 7 May before the market opens. The consensus EPS estimate for the fiscal quarter ending March 2024 is $1.09. The reported EPS for the same quarter a year prior was $0.93.
Buyers Preparing to Show?
What price action is currently showing is slowing downside momentum....
Following the recent completion of a head and shoulders top pattern (established off all-time highs at 18,464) on the Dow that hit its profit objective of 17,243, sellers could remain in control of this market according to yesterday’s bearish flag pattern completion, formed from 17,010 and 17,653.
According to the bearish flag pattern’s rules of engagement, chart...
We have a simple chart layout for the WTI oil chart this week to work with. Following four consecutive days of losses, price action is within a stone’s throw of connecting with a tight area of confluence, consisting of Quasimodo support from $77.55, trendline support (drawn from the low of $67.74) and channel support from the low of $81.09.
Should price test the...
Following yesterday’s edition of ‘Confluence Watch’ on the EUR/USD, today’s attention shifts to the Digital Currency Space: Ethereum versus the US dollar (ETH/USD).
According to the weekly timeframe, the major altcoin is down nearly -10.0% WTD and fast approaching an area of confluence (support) between $2,283 and $2,627.
The support zone boasts several...
It is pretty much a sealed deal that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold the line tomorrow at 6:00 pm GMT, keeping its overnight benchmark rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for a sixth consecutive meeting. While there is no update for economic projections at this meeting, you will recall from the last policy-setting meeting in March that the quarterly...
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD exchange rate has spent the last few days meandering around resistance on the daily timeframe.
With the trend leaning in favour of sellers, resistance is seen between $1.0753 and $1.0726, made up of the following technical tools:
• Horizontal resistance at $1.0739.
• Quasimodo-support-turned-resistance at...
You may recall the Research Team highlighted AB=CD bullish completion at $26.79 on the H4 timeframe for spot silver (XAG/USD) last week. Subsequent to this, price action recently came within reaching distance of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio at $27.84 before rotating southbound and pencilling in a potential higher low at $26.94 earlier today.
AB=CD...
BoJ More Dovish than Expected
Friday witnessed a surge in dollar demand versus the beleaguered Japanese yen (JPY). The USD/JPY pairing not only recorded its largest one-day gain this year (+1.7%), but the exchange rate also refreshed multi-decade highs and is swiftly closing in on the ¥160 region, a 1990 peak.
Earlier on Friday, Asia Pac trading witnessed the...
Europe’s shared currency wrapped up the week off best levels, eking out a marginal gain of +0.3% versus the US dollar.
Higher Timeframes Suggest Further Underperformance
Things are not looking too cheerful for the euro, both from a technical and fundamental perspective. Scope to continue pressing southbound on the monthly scale until support at $1.0516 is...
The price of spot silver versus the US dollar (XAG/USD) remains entrenched within a moderate uptrend. This tends to attract trend-following systems that attempt to buy breakouts of key areas of resistance and buy into corrections.
As evident from the H4 chart, price action has rebounded from an equal AB=CD harmonic formation at $26.79. Traders commonly enter...
Spot gold (XAU/USD) is +0.7% higher in US trading despite an earlier spike lower that was fuelled by the latest US GDP report (the first estimate).
Trend + AB=CD Support Suggest a Buyers’ Market
Technically, the price of gold could be poised to attack higher terrain. The trend, according to the higher timeframes, is unquestionably north after recently...
Amidst a dovish repricing, according to the OIS curve, sterling is on the back foot against the majority of its G10 peers ahead of the US cash open, currently down -0.5% versus its US counterpart.
With key support on the verge of breaching, this could lead to further downside in the currency pair!
Ahead of this week’s US GDP first estimate print and the PCE Price Index numbers, the US Dollar Index will likely be a watched market.
Buyers remain firmly at the wheel. YTD, we are nearly +5.0%, with April on track to close higher for a fourth consecutive month, up +1.5% MTD. And from a technical standpoint, further outperformance is on the table.
The USD/JPY currency pair recently refreshed multi-decade highs of ¥154.79, a move probing offers at channel resistance, taken from the high of ¥125.85. With resistance lacking here, this not only helps pave the way to test the mettle of ¥160.20 (highs from as far back as the 1990s) but also increases concerns about an intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ)....
We have an interesting technical picture unfolding on the NZD/USD at the moment. From the daily timeframe, it is evident that the currency pair has been underwater for the majority of this year. In fact, year to date, we are lower by -6.6%.
Further Selling?
Favouring bears at this point is the downtrend shaped by a series of lower lows and lower highs since...
Technical Picture Favours Bears
Week to date, against the US dollar (USD), the price of bitcoin (BTC) is down more than -7.0% and touching gloves with levels not seen since mid-March.
Technically, the longer-term picture exhibits overbought/overvalued conditions. Following the all-time high clocked in early March at $73,845, commitment from buyers has been...
Following today's mixed bag of employment and wages data, tomorrow’s attention is directed to the March UK CPI inflation release, scheduled to air at 7:00 am GMT+1.
Estimates Suggest Further Disinflation
Both headline and core (excludes food, energy, tobacco and alcohol) measures have surprised to the downside in the previous two releases and are expected to...
