Major US equity indices continued to navigate higher terrain last week. Both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 refreshed all-time highs, with the latter exploring space north of the 5,000 level (lifted higher on resilient economic activity and disinflation). The index first hit 4,000 at the beginning of April 2021; that’s a 1,000-point gain in less than three...
The US dollar, according to the US Dollar Index, ended another week in positive territory, just. From the weekly scale (check weekly chart), you’ll note that the Index wrapped up the week considerably off best levels and pencilled in what many candlestick enthusiasts will refer to as a Japanese shooting star candlestick (bearish signal formed after a meaningful up...
Monthly Support Eyed
Recent trading has seen the price of natural gas futures refresh multi-year lows at 1.927 USD/MMBtu. Since November 2023, we have seen natural gas trade lower by nearly -50% and demonstrate scope to reach support at 1.615 USD/MMBtu, a level that boasts historical significance as far back as 1999!
Given this, there is room for further...
Year to date, Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) is up by an eye-popping 38.0% and refreshed its all-time high at $697.54 yesterday!
This follows last year’s near-240% rally.
Needless to say, the US semiconductor company's share price (current: $678) is fast approaching $700 amid demand for AI chips. Interestingly, based on recent analysts’ forecasts for the stock, the...
As evident from the daily timeframe of WTI oil, the unit has been trending lower since topping at $94.99 in late September 2023, shaped by a series of lower lows and lower highs.
What’s technically interesting right now is the possibility of an AB=CD pattern taking form at $77.80 (denoted by a 100% projection ratio) if price engulfs the $76.14 peak established in...
AUD/USD bears outperformed in January, guiding the major pair nearly 250 pips lower, or -3.5%.
Monthly Coil in Play
From the monthly timeframe, things have been consolidating between two converging lines ($0.7158 and $0.6170) since late 2022. The fact that there is not a steep pole that precedes the formation, this pattern has been identified as a...
Amid a rally in US Treasury yields and a broad-based USD bid, spot gold (XAU/USD) is getting hammered lower today!
Down -1.1%, the precious metal is now on the doorstep of shaking hands with the widely watched 2,000 level. While this psychological barrier will house buying interest, a whipsaw (or stop run) of this level could be on the table if challenged,...
As widely expected, the Bank of England (BoE) kept the Base Rate unchanged at 5.25% for a 4th straight meeting. The MPC vote was a rather rare three-way split: two members opted for a rate hike, one for a rate cut, and the remaining six officials voted for a pause. We also witnessed the accompanying Rate Statement etch out its warning that additional tightening...
Following last week’s week-ahead post on the price of ripple versus the US dollar, the H4 harmonic ‘alternate’ AB=CD bearish formation at $0.53316, depicted through a 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio (plus the moderate Fibonacci cluster, backed by 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios), served well as resistance and sent price to a fresh YTD trough of...
The title of this post has been ‘on repeat’ for three weeks; that’s because the S&P 500 pencils in a fresh all-time high (ATH) each week!
January ended in unchartered territory, touching a fresh all-time high of 4,931 and adding +1.6%. This extended recovery gains from the near-test of monthly support coming in from 4,102 in October 2023. Recent posts by the FP...
It was shaping up to be yet another tiresome week if not for Friday’s monstrous beat on US non-farm payrolls, which triggered a bid in the US Dollar Index and ended the week +0.5% higher.
Daily Resistance Cleared
Resistance at 103.62 on the daily timeframe saw its fair share of upside attempts since 17 January, a level sharing chart space with a 200-day...
Markets and economists forecast that the FOMC will leave the Fed funds target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting. Therefore, the policy meeting, scheduled for today at 7:00 pm GMT, will focus on the accompanying Rate Statement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and whether we see a pushback against March rate pricing.
133bps of Cuts Priced...
Versus the US dollar, the price of ripple (XRP/USD) finished another trading week on the ropes and ran into an area of weekly support worthy of note for the week ahead: between $0.51462 and $0.53650, which has teamed up with a trendline support taken from the low of $0.30000.
Weekly Support Echoing Feeble Vibe
While the weekly zone is defined support and...
Clean resistance zone offered at ¥147.44-¥147.39 midday London.
Sellers from this point are likely to position stops beyond ¥147.50.
This is in line with the immediate downtrend.
BTC/USD closed out the week considerably off worst levels, delivering an unambiguous weekly hammer candlestick formation (the pattern is based on Friday’s closing price). Adding credibility to this bullish reversal pattern is where it developed: weekly support coming in at $38,809, as well as garnering reinforcement from the trend: the major crypto pair has...
Despite generous economic data last week, the US Dollar Index was tiresome. The week settled marginally higher, adding +0.2%, but it barely scratched out a fresh higher high and largely remained within the previous range (check weekly chart).
Monthly Chart:
Technical observations on the monthly timeframe are largely unchanged from previous writing (and will...
Today’s economic calendar—the end to the final full week of January—concludes with a look at the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation: December’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index.
PCE Estimates
Scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT, economists’ estimates suggest a slight uptick in the headline measure to 0.2% from November’s -0.1%, while year-on-year...
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce its latest policy settings today at 1:15 pm GMT and, together with the Advance estimate for Q4 GDP out of the US at 1:30 pm GMT, will be the dominant macro drivers. It is widely anticipated the central bank will hold the line and keep all three key benchmark interest rates unchanged for a third successive...
