After a week of consolidation, the all-important US CPI print looms over markets, as the tide looks like it may be starting to turn in favour of dollar bulls, as Treasury yields tear higher.
Plenty for Michael Brown & Ryan Littlestone to discuss and deba
Interest rate pricing has a huge effect across many financial markets at present – the correlation between short-term rates, rates volatility and the USD is certainly evident.
However, with such a big window for increased volatility in interest rates pricing, as traders try and price the prospect of a 25bp or 50bp hike at the 22 March FOMC, as well as peak fed...
Westy and Blake are back to see what's going to inject some volatility into this market, with their sights firmly set on rates. Tune in for a look at the bigger macro story in equities and charts in forex, Bitcoin and more on The Trade Off
After a week of consolidation, the all-important US CPI print looms over markets, as the tide looks like it may be starting to turn in favour of dollar bulls, as Treasury yields tear higher.
We saw gold consolidate in a bear flag, which is normally a bearish pattern. Market then broke below 1862, key support level on the H4 timeframe. We could see a continuation leg down to 1826.
USDCHF is negatively correlated to gold and we saw it consolidate in a falling channel which is normally a bullish pattern on the daily chart. We then saw the market reverse...
CADCHF has been consolidating in a ever tighter range - but after such an extended period off sideways chop, are we ready for a more impulsive, momentum driven move?
We look at the fundamental variables that could see higher volatility and how crude also plays a key role
For now, traders will play mean reversion - but when the market reveals itself be dynamic...
The RBNZ meeting could be also one to put on the radar – the market prices 44bp of hikes here, and NZD implied volatility is priced higher than other FX pairs. While inflation is rampant in NZ, the announcement of the state-wide emergency in response to Cyclone Gabrielle could see the RBNZ look to reduce the blow to households, such as we saw for the support to...
Looking at FX 1-week implied (options) volatility, we are guided by how the market sees the upcoming event risk impacting how far price can extend and subsequently our potential trading environment. It’s the percentile rank that jumps out here, as most FX pairs and gold are closer to the bottom end of their own 12-month range – in essence, the market is not...
Westy and Blake are back with a look at post CPI markets and are on the lookout for the next best trade - join them for a packed show on macro, charts and trade ideas!
We saw JPYX form a rounded top around 860, which is usually a reversal pattern after a sustained move to the upside.
This was then followed by a clean break of the trendline that held since late last year on the daily chart, as well as break of 831 support.
Could we see the break play out and JPYX extend lower to 811.
One for the radar!
We saw USDJPY slight reversal on last month's closure. On the H4 timeframe, we had seen the market trade lower in a falling channel, which is usually a reversal pattern once breached. We had seen a series of LLs and LHs then the market made a low around 127.30 before leaving a new HL, signaling a potential reversal.
Market then breached and closed outside the...
After some wild price action across markets post-CPI, things are settling down and calmer heads prevail. It was a wild day for the day traders, and an exercise in trading over news, with positioning, liquidity and flow all factors that saw market players react aggressively.
The US core CPI print was a touch above consensus at 5.6% YoY, but the market seemed to do...
After a week of consolidation, the all-important US CPI print looms over markets, as the tide looks like it may be starting to turn in favour of dollar bulls, as Treasury yields tear higher.
Plenty for Michael Brown & Ryan Littlestone to discuss and deba
We roll into the new trading week, with 1-week FX volatility surprisingly sanguine, where we see most levels trading in the 25-50th percentile of its 12-month range. AUDUSD, USDCHF and USDJPY seem to have the highest implied move - so this is where to look for potential movement (based on Friday’s closing levels). XAU is expected to hold a range of 1899 to 1832...
Time: 15 Feb 00:30 AEDT / 14 Feb 13:30 GMT
The economist's median estimate (we consider to be the consensus) – core CPI is eyed at 5.4% (down from 5.7% in Dec), with headline CPI eyed at 6.2% (from 6.5%).
*The Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast model currently sits at 5.6% YoY.
Also consider there will be some tweaks to the BLS CPI weightings today, so I will...
The US CPI print looms and markets could go either way - be prepared! We're talking sentiment, the dollar, S&P500, Gold, Eth, rates, GBPCAD and the Nikkei. Tune in for charts, macro, actionable trade ideas and quality banter.
In recent days we’ve heard bearish equity calls from prominent strategists at Morgan Stanley, JPM and Goldman Sachs all calling for lower levels in equity markets – as with any market call, it’s the logic and rationale that is of most interest, and it’s the idea that the investment bank sales team pitch to their clients. These calls help market players become more...
For the crypto ballers - ETHUSD (Ethereum) is front and centre - we see price backtesting the Nov highs, but having attempted numerous times to break the ceiling the bulls currently lack the impetus - with this consolidation we see a reduction in realised volatility (narrow Bollinger Bands), which suggests when it does break and close above resistance the prospect...
