6/10/24 - vrockstar - 
AISP - have some smaller ones on my radar like this one. they're memes until the financials start to back it up. cool story bro, basically.
so they go from 12 mn in revenue to 25 mm this year and w/ ultra high growth rates thereafter? okay maybe. but for a co this size, a sketch chart, no relief or stability after that huge pump - you'll need substance. i'd suggest we need to knee-cap the '24 figures and apply a 1) subscale software multiple (in software remember the bigger the moat, the lower the discount rate - which means higher multiple NOT the other way around and) and 2) acknowledge this isn't a 70-80% gross margin business and 3) there's not a whole lot of R&D being spent here (after all they don't have a ton of cash in the bank, burn 1-2 mm a year - maybe will be more as they grow let's see).
I'd value it like this
1) (50% of valuation at 60 mm): 20 mm revenue in '24 gets a 3x multiple (this is generous i'll point out) b/c it's a good story, and zip code so to speak. that's 60 mm valuation
2) (50% of valuation at 40 mm): R&D budget of let's round up 5 mm a year and then i do some VROCK math on it (this is my heuristic developed in time) which is discount this size co at 30% (again generous - i could say 50% and that's probably more realistic!) - so w/o growth that's 5 mm (it's 3 mm today) and divide by .3 so you get ~16 mm. let's round up for these bros -> 20 mm. and then i say the biz is worth minimally 2x that R&D value put in. it take into consideration buy-out value, monetization value etc. so that's $40 mm
conclusion - 50% at 60 mm, 50% at 40 mm = 50 mm valuation starting point. we're at an enterprise value of >80 mm today. so call it 35-40% downside from an already hairy chart before I even become interested! and without even looking - or backing into this - what do you know! that's about where the stock popped from prior to Mar '24! so there's a massive gap fill that's in range there.
basically - it's a "keep on your radar" but don't jump the gun. it's hard enough to own quality. if you're doing cyber, look at
PANW, 
S, 
CRWD and my fav "semi-cyber" 
YOU before you ape on something like this hoping for a quick pop. unless you have really dug in and know the timeline of catalysts, you're fighting a battle against getting dunked on by bag holders looking to shill those on your PnL at this point. the valuation doesn't support these levels fundamentally.
V
AISP - have some smaller ones on my radar like this one. they're memes until the financials start to back it up. cool story bro, basically.so they go from 12 mn in revenue to 25 mm this year and w/ ultra high growth rates thereafter? okay maybe. but for a co this size, a sketch chart, no relief or stability after that huge pump - you'll need substance. i'd suggest we need to knee-cap the '24 figures and apply a 1) subscale software multiple (in software remember the bigger the moat, the lower the discount rate - which means higher multiple NOT the other way around and) and 2) acknowledge this isn't a 70-80% gross margin business and 3) there's not a whole lot of R&D being spent here (after all they don't have a ton of cash in the bank, burn 1-2 mm a year - maybe will be more as they grow let's see).
I'd value it like this
1) (50% of valuation at 60 mm): 20 mm revenue in '24 gets a 3x multiple (this is generous i'll point out) b/c it's a good story, and zip code so to speak. that's 60 mm valuation
2) (50% of valuation at 40 mm): R&D budget of let's round up 5 mm a year and then i do some VROCK math on it (this is my heuristic developed in time) which is discount this size co at 30% (again generous - i could say 50% and that's probably more realistic!) - so w/o growth that's 5 mm (it's 3 mm today) and divide by .3 so you get ~16 mm. let's round up for these bros -> 20 mm. and then i say the biz is worth minimally 2x that R&D value put in. it take into consideration buy-out value, monetization value etc. so that's $40 mm
conclusion - 50% at 60 mm, 50% at 40 mm = 50 mm valuation starting point. we're at an enterprise value of >80 mm today. so call it 35-40% downside from an already hairy chart before I even become interested! and without even looking - or backing into this - what do you know! that's about where the stock popped from prior to Mar '24! so there's a massive gap fill that's in range there.
basically - it's a "keep on your radar" but don't jump the gun. it's hard enough to own quality. if you're doing cyber, look at
PANW, S, CRWD and my fav "semi-cyber" YOU before you ape on something like this hoping for a quick pop. unless you have really dug in and know the timeline of catalysts, you're fighting a battle against getting dunked on by bag holders looking to shill those on your PnL at this point. the valuation doesn't support these levels fundamentally.V
Note
stock up 16% pre market on a "six figure" contract. guys six figures. congrats to the team- but this goes to show how mentally deficient the mkt can be in the ST. again i'm not one to fade small cap stuff like this - but it's a meme. my advice: ignore the noise. six figures is... nothing.Note
incredible move here. became the flavor rotation of the day pretty quickly. again, i won't short this or even think about it. not my game shorting tiny caps that move on emotions. but if you own this - it's WAY beyond fair value. gravity will hit and you'll be the bag holder that bag held the last guy's bag. consider reading some of my posts - buy YOU, 
DLO, even 
IONQ (which i don't even own - but has massive legs potential).be warned here tourists.
and to my fam - stay clear of this - you can thank me later.
Note
mmm lol i picked up a few 6/21 5P's for $1.05 just to put some money to the above game. it's a micro of a micro position for me. but this seems to be good risk reward ONLY if we reverse today or if we get a whack fed-related day tmr (who the f knows). anyway. i have skin in the game, i'm not just trash talking from the sidelines even if it's a few hundred bucks only. :)Note
closed this trade out w a decent size gain - still think there's more to go - but this tape is whack and shorting sucks not worth the risk to have proved my point on the above just for the sake of it. worked, but honestly fam... unless you're tactically good at shorting (i used to do it professionally and it STILL sucks/ isn't easy)... just don't do it until they turn off the money printer (*cough* never). not worth it. lol.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.