$ALAB – Impulse Complete or Just a Deep Wave-4?

After a massive 5-wave run from $47 → $262, Astera Labs (ALAB) is showing the first real signs of exhaustion.
The key question now: is this a larger ABC correction, or just a Wave-4 pause before a final push higher?
Structure

• Price turned lower after rejecting the upper channel resistance.
  
• The decline looks impulsive, with expanding volume — more typical of a Wave-A than a shallow pullback.
  

Momentum

• RSI collapsed to around 34, showing strong downside momentum. Wave-4 corrections usually stall near 40–45, so this leans bearish.
  
• MACD turned negative and diverging — consistent with the start of a broader correction.
  

Key Levels

• $175–$185 → Resistance area for a potential Wave-B bounce
  
• $135–$140 → 0.382 Fib – first meaningful support
  
• $111 → 0.5 Fib – midpoint target for Wave-C
  []$90 → 0.618 Fib – ideal capitulation zone and long-term buy area
  

Scenarios

🟢 Bullish (40%) – Wave-4 before Wave-5

• Consolidation above $135 and RSI basing near 35–40 could trigger a rebound.
  
• Confirmation comes on a break and close above $185 → potential Wave-5 rally toward $320–$350.
  

🔴 Bearish (60%) – Larger ABC correction

• Failure to hold $135 → next leg down toward $110–$90 (Wave-C).
  
• Would reset the structure before a new long-term impulse begins.
  

Summary
Momentum and structure currently favor a larger ABC correction rather than a shallow Wave-4.
Expect a short-term bounce (Wave-B), followed by a potential retest of the $110–$90 zone later this cycle.
A new bullish phase likely begins once RSI forms bullish divergence and price starts reclaiming higher highs.

Outlook

• Short-term: bearish pressure / corrective phase
  
• Medium-term: base expected Q1–Q2 2026
  
• Long-term: bullish continuation once correction completes
  

What’s your take: early stages of Wave-C, or will buyers defend the 0.382?