ASML Faces Technological and Geopolitical Challenges

ASML Faces Technological and Geopolitical Challenges: A Giant Under Pressure

By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades

ASML Holding, the Dutch giant of advanced lithography, has reported solid quarterly results, confirming its role as a cornerstone in the global semiconductor industry. However, beyond the initial optimism, warning signs have emerged related to its exposure to the Chinese market and the growing European —including Spanish— interest in developing its own capabilities in this strategic sector.

Strong results, but with an Asian shadow

During the third quarter of 2025, ASML recorded net sales of €7.5 billion and a gross margin of 51.6%, figures that exceeded market expectations. The company projects an annual growth close to 15%, supported by the expansion of global demand for chips destined for artificial intelligence and data centers. Nevertheless, the company has warned of a significant decline in sales in China for 2026, a market that currently represents about a third of its new equipment revenue. Technological restrictions imposed by the United States and increasing geopolitical fragmentation threaten to affect the pace of orders in the region.

The European context and the race for technological autonomy

While ASML remains the undisputed leader in EUV lithography systems, Europe is accelerating its strategic autonomy agenda in semiconductors. Spain, in particular, is gaining ground in specific areas of the value chain. Startups such as Wooptix, specializing in advanced optical metrology, and national projects in Catalonia, Málaga, or Extremadura within the PERTE Chip initiative, demonstrate the country’s interest in positioning itself as a technological partner rather than a direct competitor. The development of advanced materials, such as synthetic diamonds for semiconductor use, aims to strengthen the European ecosystem without replicating ASML’s industrial model. For now, no Spanish company directly competes with ASML, but European investment momentum could open opportunities in complementary segments such as inspection, optics, and precision materials.

Technical Analysis (Ticker AT: ASML): Consolidation after highs

From a technical perspective, ASML shares are currently trading around €874 per share, remaining close to their historical highs of €905.1, driven by AI-related enthusiasm. The stock has shown a sustained upward trend since the beginning of the year, with key support around €804 and immediate resistance near €960. The RSI is in the overbought zone at 67.15%, indicating increased buying momentum at the start of the session. The MACD points to lateral movement, with the histogram in negative territory undergoing correction. Moving averages keep the price above the 50-day average, providing clear support for a new attempt to breach the highs.

A daily close above this resistance level could pave the way for new all-time highs, while a break below the support mentioned could trigger a consolidation phase toward €830. Volume remains stable, reflecting institutional confidence, though with signs of caution given the geopolitical scenario. ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicates a balanced market risk environment.

Still the King

ASML remains a global technological benchmark, essential for producing advanced chips. However, China’s weight in its revenues and international regulatory pressure could shape its growth path in 2026. Meanwhile, Europe —and Spain in particular— is seeking to gain ground in segments surrounding the Dutch colossus. More than a direct rivalry, what is emerging is an innovation network that could, in the medium term, diversify the European technological landscape.

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