- Reasons to be bullish on Monopolistic 
ASML :
- Open AI has decided to manufacture their own chips by partnering with
AVGO (bullish) and is bearish for 
NVDA and 
AMD
- Writing was in the wall, if there's gold rush, everyone will start sourcing their own equipments to be more efficient than relying on others all the time once scale is reached.
- Nonetheless, instead of running to $NVDIA, even hyperscalers would like to have their variants of the chips so that they can keep the money flow internal whenever possible.
- Who would be the beneficiary for the next race for building custom chips in next 4-5 years? I don't know but I do know thatASML would be in a similar position like NVDA was in 2023-2024 where NVDA basically provided shovels to the goldminers ( companies using chips )
- Now, big companies have ambitions to build chips in house which is bullish forAVGO and primarily ASML
ASML :- Open AI has decided to manufacture their own chips by partnering with
AVGO (bullish) and is bearish for NVDA and AMD - Writing was in the wall, if there's gold rush, everyone will start sourcing their own equipments to be more efficient than relying on others all the time once scale is reached.
- Nonetheless, instead of running to $NVDIA, even hyperscalers would like to have their variants of the chips so that they can keep the money flow internal whenever possible.
- Who would be the beneficiary for the next race for building custom chips in next 4-5 years? I don't know but I do know that
ASML would be in a similar position like NVDA was in 2023-2024 where NVDA basically provided shovels to the goldminers ( companies using chips )- Now, big companies have ambitions to build chips in house which is bullish for
AVGO and primarily ASMLNote
Fundamentals wise price targets:Year |2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 27.79 | 29.18 | 35.11 | 40.18
EPS% | 39.16% | 4.98% | 20.33% | 14.44%
EPS growth is high double digit except 2026. However,
ASML is a monopoly therefore, I don't mind paying forward p/e 30Fair value:
Year |2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Price | 833 | 875 | 1053 | 1205
Note
- ASML is forming inverse head and shoulders on weekly timeframe. Note
Price Targets based on fibonacci retracements considering top was $1108 on 11 July 2024 and low was $579 on April 07, 2025 :PT #1 ( fib 0.236 ) : $704 ✅
PT #2 ( fib 0.382 ) : $782 ✅
PT #3 ( fib 0.5 ) : $844
PT #4 ( fib 0.618 ) : $906
PT #5 ( fib 0.786 ) : $995
PT #6 ( fib 1 ) : $1108
PT #7 ( fib 1.618 ) : $1435
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.