AUDNZD: Waiting for the Kangaroo to Slip

The trend is up — but I’m not buying the bounce. AUDNZD is pushing into resistance, and while the bulls still have short-term control, I’m watching closely for a sell signal. I want to short this pair — but not until the chart tells me the rally is running out of steam.

📉 Trade Bias: I’m looking to short AUDNZD at resistance — once price action confirms weakness.

Here’s why I’m eyeing this setup:

🇦🇺 AUD strength is driven by global optimism, not domestic momentum

🇳🇿 NZ business confidence is booming — 11-year high

🔄 Both central banks are cautious, but the RBA is closer to cutting

🔮 RBA’s next move (August 12) could trigger AUD downside

📊 COT data shows flat AUD bets and a tilt toward NZD shorts reversing

AUD’s recent rally has little to do with fundamentals. It’s been lifted by risk-on flows tied to global trade headlines — but under the hood, things don’t look so hot. Inflation is softening, and the RBA is likely to cut rates soon. Meanwhile, domestic spending and investment remain weak.

NZD isn’t flying, but it’s holding firm. Confidence is building slowly, and although more rate cuts may come later, the RBNZ is taking its time. Traders seem to be shifting away from NZD shorts, showing a slow turn in sentiment.

If AUDNZD stalls here, this could be a fading opportunity. But I won’t jump in without confirmation.

Patience first, then action. Are you watching this zone too — or still riding the bull? 👇