Bitcoin Cycles: The road from Highs to Highs
If you bought bitcoin at the 2017 summit, this analytics is for you. In this section, we place the highs of the Bitcoin 1-1 complete bear - bull market at a common starting point.
Common highs:
Each chart on the graph is set to a weekly closing price, so the closing price was also given for the high of the 2017 cycle, which was $ 19,029.
I cut out the time planes from the previous high in 2011 to the peak in 2013 (burgundy) and the high in 2013 to thehigh in 2017 (orange), and I fitted the high to the 2017 peak. This point is marked by a black circle with a price of $ 19,029 at the time.
Then, based on this price, I started multiplying, i.e. I multiplied the result by 2 each time. That’s how I got multiples of the $ 19,029 price. On the graph, the 2x, 4x, 8x…, series, and the corresponding horizontal line indicate the exact price. In this section, I also repeated the above downwards, with the difference that I divided the price by 2. These became the -50%, -75%, and -87.5% lines.
Analysis:
Several interesting things can be observed on the graph. Just as in the previous “Lows” analysis, here too, these multiples can act as resistance as well as support.
The falls are very interesting! What they had in common was that on all 3 occasions it reached a level of at least -4x, i.e. at least a -75% “big” bear market correction. Assuming a continuation of the trend, we can reach this level in the next bear market as well. -2x, and -4x, are very strong supports and resistors, between which the price sidestepps. Interestingly, we would expect the former ATH to mean a more serious level of resistance, but visibly we go through it almost like a “knife on it”.
I will also deal with the bitcoin bear cycle in a separate analysis because this topic is worth extra to address.
The very first cycle, marked in burgundy, was able to reach a high higher than 32x compared to the previous high.
The second cycle, marked in orange, was able to reach a highk higher than 16x compared to the previous high.
The current cycle, marked in blue, if the trend continues, there is a good chance you can apply for a high in the region above 8x. That would mean a price between 150K and 300K.
Continuing from the current 57K price in red, I outlined an idea of the road to the top. This movement combines movements in the 4x - 8x sectors in 2011-2013 and 2015-2017.
We are currently 154 days ahead of the 2015-2017 cycle. Bitcoin is also visibly faster to move at the moment.
Another common feature of the 2 peaks so far is that towards the end of the cycle, the rise is almost vertical. It is very likely that the end of the current ascent will also culminate in a near-vertical motion.
Interestingly, the price is not much in the range between -2x and 2x. The highs are followed by a strong fall in this range, and then on the rise again the road leads nicely uphill. The (-2x - -4x) pagination below is not very noticeable at these levels.
Conclusion:
Those who bought at the worst possible time, at the 2017 high, and had enough perseverance in them, have now nearly tripled the value of their investment. And chances are they could double that as well.
Never give up! Diamond hand!
If you liked the analysis, click on a liking and subscribe to be informed about future analyzes and updates.
Non-financial advice. Trading in cryptocurrencies is risky and can result in losses.
Translated with Google Taranslator
Peace
The-Line
If you bought bitcoin at the 2017 summit, this analytics is for you. In this section, we place the highs of the Bitcoin 1-1 complete bear - bull market at a common starting point.
Common highs:
Each chart on the graph is set to a weekly closing price, so the closing price was also given for the high of the 2017 cycle, which was $ 19,029.
I cut out the time planes from the previous high in 2011 to the peak in 2013 (burgundy) and the high in 2013 to thehigh in 2017 (orange), and I fitted the high to the 2017 peak. This point is marked by a black circle with a price of $ 19,029 at the time.
Then, based on this price, I started multiplying, i.e. I multiplied the result by 2 each time. That’s how I got multiples of the $ 19,029 price. On the graph, the 2x, 4x, 8x…, series, and the corresponding horizontal line indicate the exact price. In this section, I also repeated the above downwards, with the difference that I divided the price by 2. These became the -50%, -75%, and -87.5% lines.
Analysis:
Several interesting things can be observed on the graph. Just as in the previous “Lows” analysis, here too, these multiples can act as resistance as well as support.
The falls are very interesting! What they had in common was that on all 3 occasions it reached a level of at least -4x, i.e. at least a -75% “big” bear market correction. Assuming a continuation of the trend, we can reach this level in the next bear market as well. -2x, and -4x, are very strong supports and resistors, between which the price sidestepps. Interestingly, we would expect the former ATH to mean a more serious level of resistance, but visibly we go through it almost like a “knife on it”.
I will also deal with the bitcoin bear cycle in a separate analysis because this topic is worth extra to address.
The very first cycle, marked in burgundy, was able to reach a high higher than 32x compared to the previous high.
The second cycle, marked in orange, was able to reach a highk higher than 16x compared to the previous high.
The current cycle, marked in blue, if the trend continues, there is a good chance you can apply for a high in the region above 8x. That would mean a price between 150K and 300K.
Continuing from the current 57K price in red, I outlined an idea of the road to the top. This movement combines movements in the 4x - 8x sectors in 2011-2013 and 2015-2017.
We are currently 154 days ahead of the 2015-2017 cycle. Bitcoin is also visibly faster to move at the moment.
Another common feature of the 2 peaks so far is that towards the end of the cycle, the rise is almost vertical. It is very likely that the end of the current ascent will also culminate in a near-vertical motion.
Interestingly, the price is not much in the range between -2x and 2x. The highs are followed by a strong fall in this range, and then on the rise again the road leads nicely uphill. The (-2x - -4x) pagination below is not very noticeable at these levels.
Conclusion:
Those who bought at the worst possible time, at the 2017 high, and had enough perseverance in them, have now nearly tripled the value of their investment. And chances are they could double that as well.
Never give up! Diamond hand!
If you liked the analysis, click on a liking and subscribe to be informed about future analyzes and updates.
Non-financial advice. Trading in cryptocurrencies is risky and can result in losses.
Translated with Google Taranslator
Peace
The-Line