BTC Pullback Setup – 12–15% Zone (Macro + Alts Outlook)

BTC was just at $115K and already pulled back to ~$113K. This kind of volatility is exactly why I’m watching for a 12–15% corrective move, lining up with both technicals and macro conditions.

🎯 Pullback Targets

12% → ~$100.3K

15% → ~$96.9K

📊 Technical Outlook

Market showing signs of exhaustion after a strong leg up

BTC is only up ~7%, while alts are up 20%+ → classic divergence, perfect trap setup

Liquidity hunts in play → could be building another bear trap, liquidating both longs & shorts like we saw in the Friday flush

Expect another 12–15% pullback, but be cautious of one more overextension before a bigger dump

📰 Macro & Sentiment Backdrop

Government shutdown risks → adds uncertainty

100% tariffs chatter → potential black swan event

Trump stimulus checks déjà vu → last time markets dipped, then roared back the same month

FOMC + data-heavy week → plenty of volatility fuel

This week into next could be the checkmate move — chop, traps, and a decisive break either way

🔄 Altcoins & Meme Coins

If BTC dips 12–15%:

Alts (ETH, SOL, ARB, HBAR, etc.) could see 15–30% pullbacks

Meme coins (DOGE, PEPE, PENGU, etc.) could bleed 30–50% before bouncing

This divergence (alts ripping while BTC lags) often signals a liquidity drain setup before the next big rotation

🧠 Game Plan Outlook

Short-term: expect traps, sideways chop, liquidation hunts

Medium-term: the next strong leg higher likely lines up with the Thanksgiving → Christmas rally window (crypto + stocks)

Long-term: prepare for a potential Q1 2026 bear market reset after holiday strength

⚠️ Not financial advice — just my outlook connecting technicals with sentiment and macro catalysts.