Hello all, the latest volatility from bitcoin was so extreme with a pump and dump manipulation on the market has occured. This action however making the potential of fake break out in the future to occur.
And to anticipate the possible movement in the future, I have to cover some of potential scenario that is likely to happen in the future. The first scenario that I find is that the latest drop from the $10000 region was only just a normal rejection as the price reached out the strongest resistance level and the psychological area for short position. The fact that there is a long wick toward the green region which is the golden pocket zone is supporting this scenario. Beside, at current level the price is still trending at above the upper line of the contracting triangle (using the body to body connecting method on daily time frame) which indicates this dump action as the action of phase 2 in the break out strategy which is retesting the previous broken resistance as support. If this scenario is valid, there will be a nice and beautiful bullish movement to the upside and the $12000 target is still valid.
The 2nd scenario which is the bearish one is when the price drops below the lower line of the contracting triangle and eliminate all the previous weeks which will automatically invalidate my Elliot wave count and my above bullish bias. If this occurs, I will expect a mid term drop to the $7500 and $6000 region again.
Currently I'm still waiting after the latest volatility wipes out most of the long position. Kindly wait for the confirmation on the micro time frame to get confirmation.
And to anticipate the possible movement in the future, I have to cover some of potential scenario that is likely to happen in the future. The first scenario that I find is that the latest drop from the $10000 region was only just a normal rejection as the price reached out the strongest resistance level and the psychological area for short position. The fact that there is a long wick toward the green region which is the golden pocket zone is supporting this scenario. Beside, at current level the price is still trending at above the upper line of the contracting triangle (using the body to body connecting method on daily time frame) which indicates this dump action as the action of phase 2 in the break out strategy which is retesting the previous broken resistance as support. If this scenario is valid, there will be a nice and beautiful bullish movement to the upside and the $12000 target is still valid.
The 2nd scenario which is the bearish one is when the price drops below the lower line of the contracting triangle and eliminate all the previous weeks which will automatically invalidate my Elliot wave count and my above bullish bias. If this occurs, I will expect a mid term drop to the $7500 and $6000 region again.
Currently I'm still waiting after the latest volatility wipes out most of the long position. Kindly wait for the confirmation on the micro time frame to get confirmation.
Note
A quick insight for current bitcoin's condition in short term. It looks like that the upper line of the contracting triangle which previously acted as resistance is holding the price really well. It looks like the 5th wave of the EW structure is in play for now. If this is true, the scenario 1 is in play as well
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.