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1 day:$6,000 retest | 1 week: Breakdown $5,750 | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: 3d stochastic, btcusdshorts' and the funding rates on Bitmex were all giving me reason to be concerned. Resistance from VRVP, daily ichimoku cloud and recent Up fractal told me to stick with the plan / Short ADA:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Bear flag and descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,475 - $6,511 | S: $6,395 - $6,425
BTCUSDSHORTS: Daily looks very toppy'. 1h is forming a continuation triangle after turning prior resistance into support. 55% short: 45% long
Funding Rates: ! Longs pay shorts 0.01% !
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 currently acting as resistance | 26 = -3.64%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.74% | 128 = -13.55% and just started to angle downward!
Volume: Roughly 50% below average. Expecting it to pick up if be breakdown $6,300 and to create a 6 month high if we break $5,750
FIB’s: 0.786 = $6,553 | 0.886 = $6,281 | 100 = $5,995 | 161.80 = $4,402
Candlestick analysis: Dark cloud cover from August 18th should mark the top of this bounce. Spinning tops that are formed afterwards provides confirmation.
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-sen starting to diverge from Kijun-sen. Bearish kumo twist on 12h with cloud becoming thicker. Huge c clamp. Similar situation in June did not lead to a bounce.
TD’ Sequential: Daily G7 indicates that bounce is getting exhausted without actually bouncing much (has been more of a consolidation/Wyckoff redistribution than anything.) 3d is working on a price flip. Weekly R3 > R2.
Visible Range: Weekly has a very significant gap from $4,800 - $5,600 | falling below $6,443 would put us below the 24 hour point of control and that price would be expected to become resistance. $6,452 is POC over last 5 days with high volume nodes from $6,320 to $6,500. $6,370 is 1 month POC. $6,387 is 6 month POC. Looks like $6,370 is much more important than I realized. If that breaks down then we could fall straight to $5,750 in a few hours.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +0.95% | 1w = +7.37% | 2w = +/- 0 | 1m = -13.40%
Bollinger Bands: MA = $6,625 and is expected to be strong resistance along with recent up fractal. Bottom band angling upward with top angling down would indicate the need for a squeeze after recent bulge.
Trendline: Bear flag
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: UP = $6,648 | DOWN = $5,896
On Balance Volume: Starting to move downward faster than price. Testing support that is equivalent to $6,321 price. Too small to consider it a div’ just yet but will be monitoring.
ADX: ADX found resistance at 30 while -DI & +DI are starting to converve. Indicates major volatility on the horizon or a need for continued consolidation (if ADX breaks down 25 and we get a cross in the -DI/+DI. Weekly ADX is creeping upward steadily and indicates that incoming vol is most likely.
Chaikin Money Flow: Huge bull div’ in weekly. Has not been > 0.15 since March 5th and is currently 0.1517. Spent all of 17 and most of 16 > 0.18 and it would make sense for that to become strong resistance. If we breakthough that level it would be a strong indication that buyers are starting to overwhelm the sellers. Setting an alert at 0.193 could be very helpful. No div’ in daily.
RSI (30 setting): Daily = 45.13 and appears to be creating a lower high. Weekly found support at 48 and has a very similar appearance to the price - wearing out support with it’s 4th test.
Stoch: Weekly has been creating lower highs all of 2018 and recently made another one. %K diverging from %D after making bullish cross on 3d. %K just started to angle downward on daily. Recrossing < 60 would be very bearish.
Bullish divergence in weekly Chaikin Money Flow/i]
Summary: Bull div' in weekly CMF’ is alarming. Bear markets end when buyers overwhelm sellers and seeing a drastic increase in buying pressure over a long term time period is something to take note of.
What I think is even more important than the CMF' (in the short term) is the funding rates returning to an equilibrium with longs paying shorts. A retest of the 12 EMA and a 0.01% funding rate it what I was waiting for before continuing the sell off.
Breaking down $6,370 would put us below the VRVP POC over the past 6 months and that would be very significant.
Mounting resistance from VRVP, horizontals, bearish wick from August 15h, fib retracement, G7 on daily TD', bollinger band, daily cloud, and recent up fractal give me confidence in my position. Opening a short now provides a sold r:r. Stop could be at $6,726 | $6,876 or $7,115 depending on your target and risk tolerance.
1 day:$6,000 retest | 1 week: Breakdown $5,750 | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: 3d stochastic, btcusdshorts' and the funding rates on Bitmex were all giving me reason to be concerned. Resistance from VRVP, daily ichimoku cloud and recent Up fractal told me to stick with the plan / Short ADA:BTC | ETH:USD | ETH:BTC
Patterns: Bear flag and descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,475 - $6,511 | S: $6,395 - $6,425
BTCUSDSHORTS: Daily looks very toppy'. 1h is forming a continuation triangle after turning prior resistance into support. 55% short: 45% long
Funding Rates: ! Longs pay shorts 0.01% !
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 currently acting as resistance | 26 = -3.64%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.74% | 128 = -13.55% and just started to angle downward!
Volume: Roughly 50% below average. Expecting it to pick up if be breakdown $6,300 and to create a 6 month high if we break $5,750
FIB’s: 0.786 = $6,553 | 0.886 = $6,281 | 100 = $5,995 | 161.80 = $4,402
Candlestick analysis: Dark cloud cover from August 18th should mark the top of this bounce. Spinning tops that are formed afterwards provides confirmation.
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-sen starting to diverge from Kijun-sen. Bearish kumo twist on 12h with cloud becoming thicker. Huge c clamp. Similar situation in June did not lead to a bounce.
TD’ Sequential: Daily G7 indicates that bounce is getting exhausted without actually bouncing much (has been more of a consolidation/Wyckoff redistribution than anything.) 3d is working on a price flip. Weekly R3 > R2.
Visible Range: Weekly has a very significant gap from $4,800 - $5,600 | falling below $6,443 would put us below the 24 hour point of control and that price would be expected to become resistance. $6,452 is POC over last 5 days with high volume nodes from $6,320 to $6,500. $6,370 is 1 month POC. $6,387 is 6 month POC. Looks like $6,370 is much more important than I realized. If that breaks down then we could fall straight to $5,750 in a few hours.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +0.95% | 1w = +7.37% | 2w = +/- 0 | 1m = -13.40%
Bollinger Bands: MA = $6,625 and is expected to be strong resistance along with recent up fractal. Bottom band angling upward with top angling down would indicate the need for a squeeze after recent bulge.
Trendline: Bear flag
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: UP = $6,648 | DOWN = $5,896
On Balance Volume: Starting to move downward faster than price. Testing support that is equivalent to $6,321 price. Too small to consider it a div’ just yet but will be monitoring.
ADX: ADX found resistance at 30 while -DI & +DI are starting to converve. Indicates major volatility on the horizon or a need for continued consolidation (if ADX breaks down 25 and we get a cross in the -DI/+DI. Weekly ADX is creeping upward steadily and indicates that incoming vol is most likely.
Chaikin Money Flow: Huge bull div’ in weekly. Has not been > 0.15 since March 5th and is currently 0.1517. Spent all of 17 and most of 16 > 0.18 and it would make sense for that to become strong resistance. If we breakthough that level it would be a strong indication that buyers are starting to overwhelm the sellers. Setting an alert at 0.193 could be very helpful. No div’ in daily.
RSI (30 setting): Daily = 45.13 and appears to be creating a lower high. Weekly found support at 48 and has a very similar appearance to the price - wearing out support with it’s 4th test.
Stoch: Weekly has been creating lower highs all of 2018 and recently made another one. %K diverging from %D after making bullish cross on 3d. %K just started to angle downward on daily. Recrossing < 60 would be very bearish.
Bullish divergence in weekly Chaikin Money Flow/i]
Summary: Bull div' in weekly CMF’ is alarming. Bear markets end when buyers overwhelm sellers and seeing a drastic increase in buying pressure over a long term time period is something to take note of.
What I think is even more important than the CMF' (in the short term) is the funding rates returning to an equilibrium with longs paying shorts. A retest of the 12 EMA and a 0.01% funding rate it what I was waiting for before continuing the sell off.
Breaking down $6,370 would put us below the VRVP POC over the past 6 months and that would be very significant.
Mounting resistance from VRVP, horizontals, bearish wick from August 15h, fib retracement, G7 on daily TD', bollinger band, daily cloud, and recent up fractal give me confidence in my position. Opening a short now provides a sold r:r. Stop could be at $6,726 | $6,876 or $7,115 depending on your target and risk tolerance.
Note
Local high on the volume indicates that this move is not a fakeout. Selling this bounce seems like a particularly good opportunity to me : ) Note
POC with a 6 month look back has broken down. Expect $6,367 to become major resistance. 
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.