Bitcoin: Wave 4 Overlap Changes Expectations.

Bitcoin has compromised the 108K area overlap which refers to the wave 1/wave 4 overlap rule for the broader wave 5 impulse that I have been measuring for months. While this can be very subjective, this fact prompts me to adjust my expectations in regards to trend structure, along with risk management.

The wave 4 overlap does NOT necessarily mean a bear market is ahead but it does justify considering a lower probability of new high (or wave 5), and a greater probability of a consolidation. So what does this mean for traders and investors? This pull back should not be treated like a typical pull back. In a corrective structure, after the completion of the A wave, which the current leg is likely to be, it is followed by the B wave. This typically establishes a lower high which can be expressed as a move from current prices back to the 115K area. Those who are unaware will get caught in this thinking new highs are just around the corner.

IF I am correct about this proposed corrective scenario, this can be very beginning of a very broad wave 2 which can eventually lead price back into the 80Ks. At this magnitude such a move can take a year to play out. Gold has shown similar patterns that persist for years before breaking out, so this scenario is within reason.

Key factors to watch for: there are many fundamental question marks that the market has to adjust to. There are numerous data points that are expected over the next few months like NFP, the FOMC rate cut, and how the FED hints at future quantitative easing. While this situation seems beneficial to Bitcoin, we can't take it for granted. This is a sentiment game, NOT a logical one. This is why I use prices to determine if risk is worth taking, not my economic opinion that is based on public information. This means it is possible to have a favorable easy money environment, and Bitcoin can still be stuck in a broad range.

With the 108K overlap in place, I will be mostly interested in whole number support levels like 105K, 100K, 95K ext. Even a retest of the 108K support for a double bottom, but if I consider any longs the profit objective will be low (like 1.5 to 1 or even 1:1). I am only interested in swing trades because in my opinion these are not investing levels.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.