BTC: New ATH or One More Correction? The 78.6% Level Decides

2 days ago

In every great story, there is a final challenge before the ultimate prize. For Bitcoin, that moment is now. The price is approaching the last major line of resistance that stands between the current price and a new All-Time High. This analysis breaks down that critical level and the tactical, counter-trend opportunity it may present.

Bitcoin is continuing its uptrend after the correction to the 61.8% Fib level, which I showed in the trade idea "Bitcoin's Tumble: How Deep Does the Rabbit Hole Go?", and is now approaching a very important level that will determine whether a new ATH will be formed or if the asset will correct further before that.

This is the 78.6% Fib level - the last resistance level from which a short can be considered.

Conditions for the Short Setup:

🔑 POI: 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level

🔎 ENTRY CONDITIONS: The price must find acceptance below the 78.6% level. Since this is a daily structure, this may require daily candle bodies closing below the level for confirmation.

🎯 MINIMUM TARGET: Bullish Daily Order Block below.

❌ INVALIDATION: A confirmed break and hold above the 78.6% level. A break here would signal a probable move to a new ATH.

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The principles and conditions for forming the manipulation zones I show in this trade idea are detailed in my educational publication, which was chosen by TradingView for the "Editor's Picks" category and received a huge amount of positive feedback from this insightful trading community. To better understand the logic I've used here and the general principles of price movement in most markets from the perspective of institutional capital, I highly recommend checking out this guide if you haven't already. 👇

P.S. This is not a prediction of the exact price direction. It is a description of high-probability setups that become valid only if specific conditions are met when the price reaches the marked POI. If the conditions are not met, the setups are invalid. No setup has a 100% success rate, so if you decide to use this trade idea, always apply a stop-loss and proper risk management. Trade smart.

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yesterday

Note

UPDATE: Bitcoin

Bitcoin has had its first reaction to the level; the price clearly "saw" it. The price movement was halted, and the first daily candle closed with its body below the level. However, this is not yet a confirmation, which would require a minimum of two daily candle bodies closing below it.
I still expect a sweep of the Previous Day's High (PDH).

The most important thing is that the body of today's daily candle ultimately closes below the level. This will only be visible tomorrow/on Monday. If that happens, it will mean the level has held, acceptance below it is confirmed, and a short can be considered with additional confirmation on a lower timeframe and the beginning of a bearish order flow.

yesterday

Order cancelled

UPDATE: Bitcoin

The price has approached the ATH, so regardless of how today's daily candle closes, the final resistance level in the form of the 78.6% level can be considered broken, and the tactical short scenario in this idea is invalidated.

The price is continuing to play out my previous long idea from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and a new ATH is just a matter of time.