Compressed Spring

Recent crude oil price action reflects a clear compressed spring phase, characterized by an extended decline followed by progressively narrower ranges, repeated lower wicks, and a lack of downside follow-through despite sustained selling pressure. This behavior points to supply absorption by larger market participants, as the market stops reacting to negative news and volatility contracts in an atypical manner. Technically, the accumulation zone is concentrated between 55–57, while the true trigger is a breakout and daily close above 60.30–60.60. A strong confirmation of a regime shift would be a sustained close above 62, a scenario that historically precedes fast, directional expansions rather than gradual moves, shifting risk away from further downside toward an abrupt bullish impulse.