ES - October 16th - Daily Trade Plan

Oct 16

October 16th - 6:30am

*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *

If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!

My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.

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Yesterday we had some really good levels to grab points for those traders that were patiently waiting for a pullback. I wrote multiple times yesterday that I was anticipating a pullback. I gave plenty of updates including the following:

10am - Update
"Price opened up and held the 6725 level in the first 30 mins. Price is coming into the 6750-52 resistance. IF, price loses 6725, we could flush pretty hard and I would get out the way. I am still patiently waiting on lower levels, but 6720 will no longer be an option for me, especially, now that we have held that level and rallied into resistance at the open. 1hr RSI is at 97 and we should still get a healthy pullback if this rally is to keep going higher. I would NOT BE CHASING at this level. I could be very wrong, but I would rather wait on a pull back to enter than trying to chase after the open."

We rallied into the high of the day at 6767 (which is now the weekly high) and by 10:15am we started to sell off.

In the daily trade plan, I stated the following levels I would be looking to grab points at:
Levels I am looking to grab some points at today:
1. Any loss and reclaim of 6705
2. Loss of 6683 and reclaim (maybe getting as low as 6666 and then reclaim 6674)
3. Loss of 6660 and reclaim

All 3 levels created opportunities to grab points and IF you were patient, prepared, and acted in real-time you could have grabbed some nice points, yesterday.
(* I would go back and look at all my real-time updates from yesterday. I especially discuss the reclaim of 6660, WHY I did not take that level reclaim, and why I decided to wait for the 6683 reclaim. This was also the overnight low)

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Let's discuss today's plan!

As of writing my plan, we are coming into and making the overnight high at 6742 with our low at 6704. We have been grinding higher in this range all night. The trend is up and we should always defer to the trend. Ideally, we can get a pull back to 6695 and reclaim 6705. We could also pull back to 6717 and reclaim 6720. IF, price is to continue higher, we should not lose the 6650-52 level. Since this was yesterday's low, I do not anticipate us losing that level today and we may need to use levels within the current overnight range to take us higher. Above 6742 and we should re-test the 6767 level and potentially target the 6797 level.

Levels I am looking to grab some points at today:

1. Any loss and reclaim of 6717
2. Any loss and reclaim of 6705
3. Any loss and reclaim of 6695 (We could pull back to 6686, 6692 and then reclaim of 6695 would be bullish)

Key Support Levels - 6737, 6717, 6705, 6695, 6683, 6671, 6660, 6652
Key Resistance Levels - 6742, 6747, 6758, 6767, 6779, 6797

I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows

Oct 16

Note

8:45am - Update

We are getting a nice bounce here at 6732 level. Keep an eye on this level as we get into the first 30 min of trading. I am anticipating a potential pullback to this level or just below. Any reclaim of 6732 would be bullish. Same goes for the back test of 6745, IF price can rally above and then retest that level. This would keep us moving up the levels this am. Outside of that, I would be looking at the levels outlined in the daily trade plan.

Oct 16

Note

9:48am - Update

I took a position at 6732 after it had dipped down to 6724. I sold 1/2 position at 6742 (First Resistance) and runner is at break even at 6732. Actually, the runner stopped out while I was typing this. Price should go higher, IF, it holds the 6728 level. That was a quick reclaim but institutions are trying to keep price above the 6730 level. IF, we lose 6728, any reclaim of that level could move us higher. IF, we lose the level, the 6717 then 6705 are our next best spots.

Oct 16

Note

9:53am - Update

IF, price gets another attempt at 6745, we should clear that area and move higher. It would be the 4th attempt this am.

Oct 16

Note

10:24am - Update

Bought my last position at 6721 and sold 1/2 position at 6732, leaving runner with a stop at 6728.

Oct 16

Note

10:39am - Update

My runner stopped out at 6728 and we found a low at 6726. Price should clear 6745 on next attempt. Maybe get one more pullback to 6732 level before attempting. Below 6726 and we will need to retest 6705.

Oct 16

Note

11:39am - Update

The reclaim of 6732 should be bullish to continue higher. We reclaimed 6717 and are now heading into back test 6732.

Oct 16

Note

11:50am -Update

We are heading into some key levels that could potentially produce a short squeeze. Looking for the flush and recovery of 6705, with entry around 6712. Ideally, we hit 66695 and recovery 6705 for a move higher to attempt 6732 again. IF, price cannot get moving above 6717, we probably need to test 6683 or 6671.

7 days ago

Note

3pm - Update

Price lost some core levels and as I stated in the trade plan, price should not lose 6652 and we lost it down to 6632. We are back testing the 6671 level and while price should continue higher. I would be cautious as this is also the back test of the big bear flag I mentioned this week. IF, price can clear 6703 we should be going higher tomorrow. IF, price does not clear 6703, we may need to retest today's low for some points. We did get a failed breakdown with the loss of 6652 (Yesterday's low) and it was good for a level-to-level move. I did not take it since I had already traded 2x today. I would not be chasing in the final hour. Let price reset overnight and we can reevaluate. Daily Trade Plan will be out by 6am EST.