October 30th - 6am
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
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Yesterday we had some afternoon volatility. Prior to 2pm EST we had a big battle at the 6930 level. This level was finally lost after FOMC and we sold off very quickly into the 6901, 6889 levels. This happened very fast and as I stated on my Daily Trade Plan that we were looking for the flush and reclaim of 6889, 6901 (6908 being the safer option). I did not take a trade in the afternoon but watching price action it would have been difficult without having a large stop loss in place.
At 5:30pm I wrote the following note:
"Price back tested the 6937 level we sold off from, and we need to hold 6908, 6894 in the overnight session. There is a bull/bear line at 6908 that was battled today. My general lean is that we need to continue lower to the 6864-67 level or close the gap at 6827 and then move higher. We are still in a bullish trend and nothing bearish changes the trend until we lose 6690. I think we can continue higher, IF price can flush lower, close the gap and then move higher and clear 6950."
What has transpired overnight? We made our overnight high of 6953 and have held the 6901 level. As of typing this post, we are currently at 6906 and about to test the 6901 level for the 3x overnight. We may get one more bounce here or we may lose the 6901 level and have to test the 6881 (yesterday's low). We still have a large gap below that needs to be filled.
My general lean for today is that we can lose 6881 and reclaim to move higher and back test 6901. This could continue us higher. Ideally, we would get a nice flush of 6865-67 levels and reclaim to move us higher. We could have both happen today.
Key Levels Today -
1. Loss of 6908 and reclaim (This is the bull/bear line in this range between 6881-6953)
2. Loss of 6901 and reclaim (Weaker level now)
3. Loss of 6881 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6867-65 and reclaim
Below these levels and we will probably be selling off pretty hard, and I would probably let price find a support level below and build a base to move higher.
Key Support Levels - 6908, 6901, 6889,6878, 6867, 6857, 6841, 6827, 6812
Key Resistance Levels - 6908. 6917, 6931, 6937, 6953, 6960, 6980
IF price loses a level and you are not able to enter, wait for price to find another key level above, build a base and allow that level to become support. Then find a spot to enter for a level-to-level move.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
*Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterdays, or the Weekly Trade Plan take the time to read it first! (You can see both posts in the related publication section) *
If my posts provide quality information that has helped you with your trading journey. Feel free to boost it for others to find and learn, also!
My daily trade plan and real-time notes that I post are intended for myself to easily be able to go back and review my plan and how I did from an execution perspective.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday we had some afternoon volatility. Prior to 2pm EST we had a big battle at the 6930 level. This level was finally lost after FOMC and we sold off very quickly into the 6901, 6889 levels. This happened very fast and as I stated on my Daily Trade Plan that we were looking for the flush and reclaim of 6889, 6901 (6908 being the safer option). I did not take a trade in the afternoon but watching price action it would have been difficult without having a large stop loss in place.
At 5:30pm I wrote the following note:
"Price back tested the 6937 level we sold off from, and we need to hold 6908, 6894 in the overnight session. There is a bull/bear line at 6908 that was battled today. My general lean is that we need to continue lower to the 6864-67 level or close the gap at 6827 and then move higher. We are still in a bullish trend and nothing bearish changes the trend until we lose 6690. I think we can continue higher, IF price can flush lower, close the gap and then move higher and clear 6950."
What has transpired overnight? We made our overnight high of 6953 and have held the 6901 level. As of typing this post, we are currently at 6906 and about to test the 6901 level for the 3x overnight. We may get one more bounce here or we may lose the 6901 level and have to test the 6881 (yesterday's low). We still have a large gap below that needs to be filled.
My general lean for today is that we can lose 6881 and reclaim to move higher and back test 6901. This could continue us higher. Ideally, we would get a nice flush of 6865-67 levels and reclaim to move us higher. We could have both happen today.
Key Levels Today -
1. Loss of 6908 and reclaim (This is the bull/bear line in this range between 6881-6953)
2. Loss of 6901 and reclaim (Weaker level now)
3. Loss of 6881 and reclaim
4. Loss of 6867-65 and reclaim
Below these levels and we will probably be selling off pretty hard, and I would probably let price find a support level below and build a base to move higher.
Key Support Levels - 6908, 6901, 6889,6878, 6867, 6857, 6841, 6827, 6812
Key Resistance Levels - 6908. 6917, 6931, 6937, 6953, 6960, 6980
IF price loses a level and you are not able to enter, wait for price to find another key level above, build a base and allow that level to become support. Then find a spot to enter for a level-to-level move.
I will post an update around 10am EST.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows
Note
8:45am - UpdatePrice has lost 6901 and we didn't get much of a bounce. We need to clear 6908 to head higher. The next good level is the loss or touch of 6889 level for a bounce to retest 6901. Below there 6881 is next key level of interest. When I mentioned in my post that 6901 is "weaker level now", you can see that we bounced but just couldn't get much higher than 6908. Price was struggling to get moving higher. Any reclaim of 6908 should give us a nice rally higher. IF price is selling lower like yesterday after FOMC. I would get out the way and let it find a level below it wants to build a base at to continue higher.
Note
9:20am - Update I took a position at 6889 and have my stop at 6888. I will sell 1/2 position at 6901 and will keep a runner with a stop at 6890. Since the open is only 10 mins away (Which I hate holding a position at the open close to a breakeven level), anything can happen and I could get stopped out on both. IF price loses 6888 level, I will look at loss of 6881 and reclaim for a move higher.
Note
9:29am - Update Stopped out of my position, exactly why I hate taking a position before the open. Any loss of 6887 and reclaim should be a good level to long.
Note
9:47am - Update I missed getting in on a position at 6868 and I am watching price at 6889 level with a back test of 6888 will be a potential place I can grab some points. or loss of 6889 and recovery next time around. Shouldn't go lower than 6886 at this point or any loss and recovery could be a good entry.
Note
10am - UpdateWhen price squeezes like this and you are quickly reaching a key resistance level in this case 6908 being the bull/bear line. IF price wants to go higher, you do not have to rush in and chase. Price will come back down and there are places to look to grab points. We really need to hold 6901, 6889. Below there and I would wait for price to recover 6889 to long.
Note
1:05pm - UpdatePrice has respected 6889 all morning since we found a low at 6867. There has been a lot of selling today at the 6908 level which I wrote was the bull/near line. Below 6885 and we could flush down to daily low, above 6908 and we could take off to 6930. Let's see what happens this afternoon. My lean is we flush lower with potentially another bounce left in a level loss of today's low and recovery for a short squeeze. 6885-6908 is a big range we have been chopping around in today.
Note
4:45pm - UpdatePrice is back testing the 6881 level in afterhours. I expect price to chop around between 6890 and 6851 overnight. Bulls are back in control if we can clear 6908 overnight or tomorrow. It is end of month and we still have not fully closed the open gap from sunday's open. IF price loses 6852, we will most likely flush lower to close the gap and 6822, 6811, 6792 are main levels below that should be looking for a base to build and move higher.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.