Dear traders and investors,
I firstly want to mention that everyone who took that last weeks trade, it is now time to close it or, if you want to take on more risk, you can hold through the next descending phase where you could get stopped out. But lets get into the analysis.
As I mentioned in todays Bitcoin analysis, the macro environment is currently bullish. We have a rate cut coming in on Wednesday with a high probability and lower than expected CPI on last Friday, leading to Powell being rather dovish than hawkish but still cautious. Trump is also signaling a tariff deal with China may be coming in soon. I do think this also has to do with his ambitions to lower the rates and tariffs may impact the inflation so he avoids more uncertainty.
Looking at the money flows, ETFs are receiving and inflows are looking like they are topping out right now. I think this is a typical behavior for a fifth wave, as institutionals are backing of from the market and using the late retailers as exit liquidity.
Moving on to market structure, it seems to be likely that this pump on Sunday was rather a overshooting wave B, than a actual impulsive move of the third wave. There is just to much lethargic in this move. In addition to that, funding rates rose to higher-than-normal highs and there is a bunch of liquidity forming under the current price. Therefore, the odds for longs getting liquidated rise. Alternatively, this is actually the third wave. If so, Ethereum should pump further without hesitation within the next few candles.
All in all, I would favor a short postion with stop loss at the high of the minor wave B or one percent above and the take profit at the 0.5 fibonacci extension level. This scenario is also in favored by Bitcoin, as I also anticipate a short-term drop. nonetheless be careful with short positions, we are in a bull market, the upside is overall in favor and shorts being liquidated is really easy right now. For people who look for a opportunity to buy in, the extension levels are all a good trade with stop loss at the low of the primary wave Y and take profit at the anticipated third wave or fifth wave high.
I hope i was able to give some value, have an exceptional successful week!
I firstly want to mention that everyone who took that last weeks trade, it is now time to close it or, if you want to take on more risk, you can hold through the next descending phase where you could get stopped out. But lets get into the analysis.
As I mentioned in todays Bitcoin analysis, the macro environment is currently bullish. We have a rate cut coming in on Wednesday with a high probability and lower than expected CPI on last Friday, leading to Powell being rather dovish than hawkish but still cautious. Trump is also signaling a tariff deal with China may be coming in soon. I do think this also has to do with his ambitions to lower the rates and tariffs may impact the inflation so he avoids more uncertainty.
Looking at the money flows, ETFs are receiving and inflows are looking like they are topping out right now. I think this is a typical behavior for a fifth wave, as institutionals are backing of from the market and using the late retailers as exit liquidity.
Moving on to market structure, it seems to be likely that this pump on Sunday was rather a overshooting wave B, than a actual impulsive move of the third wave. There is just to much lethargic in this move. In addition to that, funding rates rose to higher-than-normal highs and there is a bunch of liquidity forming under the current price. Therefore, the odds for longs getting liquidated rise. Alternatively, this is actually the third wave. If so, Ethereum should pump further without hesitation within the next few candles.
All in all, I would favor a short postion with stop loss at the high of the minor wave B or one percent above and the take profit at the 0.5 fibonacci extension level. This scenario is also in favored by Bitcoin, as I also anticipate a short-term drop. nonetheless be careful with short positions, we are in a bull market, the upside is overall in favor and shorts being liquidated is really easy right now. For people who look for a opportunity to buy in, the extension levels are all a good trade with stop loss at the low of the primary wave Y and take profit at the anticipated third wave or fifth wave high.
I hope i was able to give some value, have an exceptional successful week!
Note
Also, if the current move is already the third wave, we should break the high of the first wave very soon sustainably.Trade closed: target reached
Nice one!
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.