EURCHF – Uptrend Channel Breakdown Confirmed | Important Support

Nov 11

EURCHF has been advancing within a well-defined uptrend channel since the September lows, maintaining a pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe amid relative EUR resilience against the safe-haven CHF. Over the past week, however, the pair has undergone a structural breakdown below the lower channel boundary near 0.9290, confirming a shift in order flow as sellers capitalize on broader risk-off flows and CHF demand.

The breakdown was executed with a decisive bearish candle that cleared the channel support, followed by a failed retest where the prior trendline now functions as resistance around 0.9300. This has invalidated the short-term bullish structure, producing multiple breaks of structure to the downside and consistent lower highs on the 30-minute chart. Price is currently holding within a critical demand zone between 0.9270 and 0.9280, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the recent upleg and prior liquidity accumulation points. This important support line has so far absorbed downside pressure, forming a consolidation base that could either defend for a temporary relief rally or give way to further distribution.

From a market structure perspective, downside displacements have shown elevated volume, underscoring seller dominance, while recovery attempts exhibit fading momentum, consistent with the transition from accumulation to distribution. The pair's position below the channel midpoint further solidifies the bearish control, with the path of least resistance downward as long as the 0.9300 resistance remains unchallenged.

As long as the 0.9270–0.9280 zone holds as support, the setup positions for continuation lower upon any breach; a clean close above 0.9300 would invalidate the breakdown and prompt a retest of the channel interior.

Technical Target Levels
First Target: 0.9250
Second Target: 0.9220
Third Target: 0.9190

This setup indicates EURCHF is bearish following the uptrend channel breakdown, with downside targets in play while price holds the important support line. Traders should await confirmation of a breach below the zone for entries, employing tight risk above the consolidation high to navigate potential volatility.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always follow your trading plan and use sound risk control.

Nov 12

Trade active

EURCHF Update
TP1 Hit @ 0.9250 – Partial profits taken
Holding short for TP2 0.9220 → TP3 0.9190
Stop trailed to breakeven
Structure intact below 0.9300

Nov 13

Trade closed: target reached

EURCHF Trade Update | Targets Achieved
EURCHF has executed the full downside projection following the uptrend channel breakdown, hitting all technical targets with clean bearish momentum and no significant counter-moves. The pair respected the structure below 0.9300, confirming seller control through the important support breach at 0.9270–0.9280.

Targets Recap:
TP1: 0.9250 (Hit – Partial Profits)
TP2: 0.9220 (Hit – Scaled Out)

Excellent run from the initial setup – a prime example of channel breakdown precision in forex. Congratulations to all who followed with disciplined risk management.

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