Gold prices continued to edge higher on Monday amid growing market speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in December. Despite earlier comments from several Fed officials suggesting no rate cuts this year, the probability of a December cut has strengthened. This renewed optimism has once again boosted gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
However, in my view, the recent price rise isn’t solely driven by expectations of rate cuts. There are several broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors contributing to gold’s bullish momentum.
Following the recent meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, markets were initially hopeful that a significant trade breakthrough would ease tensions between the U.S. and China. Investors expected that China might resume exports of rare minerals and critical raw materials, which are essential for semiconductor production.
While China has indeed decided to extend the export suspension of certain materials—particularly gallium and antimony—until 2026, the uncertainty beyond that timeframe has created further anxiety in global markets. This uncertainty, combined with expectations of slower global economic growth into 2026, is strengthening demand for gold as a long-term hedge.
In addition, major central banks such as China, Russia, and Turkey have been steadily increasing their gold reserves. This accumulation provides additional support for gold prices, as these institutions are likely to continue buying on dips to diversify away from dollar exposure. Fundamentally, the overall outlook remains strongly bullish for gold.
From October 20 to October 28, gold experienced a short-term pullback. Despite that correction, price action consistently respected the key support zone near $3,990–$4,000, never forming a stable close below it. The market repeatedly failed to break below that base, showing buyers’ strength.
On the upside, the immediate resistance zone around $4,030–$4,050 had held firm for several sessions. However, during today’s early trading session, gold successfully broke above this resistance, establishing stability above the breakout level.
Currently, the next short-term target lies near the $4,130–$4,150 range. If the daily candle closes bullishly, even a minor correction could be followed by another leg upward toward that zone.
Given that $4,150 represents a strong resistance area, a brief pullback is possible once price reaches it. But if gold can sustain a stable close above $4,150, the next psychological target would be around $4,200–$4,230, with a potential final upside target near $4,280–$4,300.
Support & Risk Levels
Immediate Support: $4,050
Next Strong Support: $3,970 – $4,000
Major Support (Invalidation Zone): $3,880 – $3,900
As long as gold holds above the $3,880–$3,900 range, a major downtrend remains unlikely. Buyers continue to defend lower levels aggressively, and momentum remains positive both fundamentally and technically.
Gold remains underpinned by a mix of fundamental optimism (potential Fed rate cuts, central-bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty) and technical strength above its breakout levels. A sustained move above $4,150 could open the path toward $4,300, while a break below $3,970 might trigger a temporary correction.
However, in my view, the recent price rise isn’t solely driven by expectations of rate cuts. There are several broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors contributing to gold’s bullish momentum.
Following the recent meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, markets were initially hopeful that a significant trade breakthrough would ease tensions between the U.S. and China. Investors expected that China might resume exports of rare minerals and critical raw materials, which are essential for semiconductor production.
While China has indeed decided to extend the export suspension of certain materials—particularly gallium and antimony—until 2026, the uncertainty beyond that timeframe has created further anxiety in global markets. This uncertainty, combined with expectations of slower global economic growth into 2026, is strengthening demand for gold as a long-term hedge.
In addition, major central banks such as China, Russia, and Turkey have been steadily increasing their gold reserves. This accumulation provides additional support for gold prices, as these institutions are likely to continue buying on dips to diversify away from dollar exposure. Fundamentally, the overall outlook remains strongly bullish for gold.
From October 20 to October 28, gold experienced a short-term pullback. Despite that correction, price action consistently respected the key support zone near $3,990–$4,000, never forming a stable close below it. The market repeatedly failed to break below that base, showing buyers’ strength.
On the upside, the immediate resistance zone around $4,030–$4,050 had held firm for several sessions. However, during today’s early trading session, gold successfully broke above this resistance, establishing stability above the breakout level.
Currently, the next short-term target lies near the $4,130–$4,150 range. If the daily candle closes bullishly, even a minor correction could be followed by another leg upward toward that zone.
Given that $4,150 represents a strong resistance area, a brief pullback is possible once price reaches it. But if gold can sustain a stable close above $4,150, the next psychological target would be around $4,200–$4,230, with a potential final upside target near $4,280–$4,300.
Support & Risk Levels
Immediate Support: $4,050
Next Strong Support: $3,970 – $4,000
Major Support (Invalidation Zone): $3,880 – $3,900
As long as gold holds above the $3,880–$3,900 range, a major downtrend remains unlikely. Buyers continue to defend lower levels aggressively, and momentum remains positive both fundamentally and technically.
Gold remains underpinned by a mix of fundamental optimism (potential Fed rate cuts, central-bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty) and technical strength above its breakout levels. A sustained move above $4,150 could open the path toward $4,300, while a break below $3,970 might trigger a temporary correction.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.