Yesterday, gold opened at 4,002 and surged sharply to a high near 4,116—there’s no doubt the bulls have once again staged an explosive rally of over 100 points. As for the reasons behind this upward move, it’s clear to everyone: first, extremely high market panic triggered a safe-haven-driven rally for gold. Second, gold’s gap-up opening at the start of the session spurred market buyers to chase the bullish momentum. As gold climbed, it attracted a flood of buying interest, which in turn pushed prices even higher.
For today, as gold has a tendency to trend in one direction (either bullish or bearish) on such days, how should we decide between going long or short? Gold opened around 4,110, dipped slightly in early trading to a low near 4,106 before rebounding to 4,116, and then consolidated at elevated levels before moving up to around 4,150. The bullish momentum remains formidable—even amid high-level consolidation, the bulls still have lingering strength. Notably, calls for a rate cut from Federal Reserve officials are growing louder, and the probability of a rate cut in October is now nearly a foregone conclusion. This has further fueled market buyers’ enthusiasm for the bullish trend.
In particular, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak today. If Powell echoes the current dovish rhetoric about rate cuts, the bullish momentum will likely continue—after all, rate cuts are an enormous boon for gold bulls. In such a scenario, Powell’s comments could prompt the market to increase bets on rate cuts, providing the gold bulls with a steady stream of momentum and driving gold to continue making new all-time highs.
However, it’s worth noting that Powell could also surprise by striking a more hawkish tone and pushing back against further rate cuts. The reason is simple: the U.S. government shutdown. Due to the ongoing shutdown, the Fed lacks sufficient economic data to support its decisions, which may leave insufficient justification for a rate cut. Additionally, the current chaos in the U.S. economy and the renewed escalation of tariff tensions have further constrained the Fed’s policy options. Powell previously highlighted the impact of tariffs on Fed policy, so there’s a real possibility his hawkish remarks today could drastically reduce market expectations for a rate cut. If this happens, gold faces significant risk of a sharp collapse.
Another point to consider is the timeliness of market news: the explosive impact of any event is temporary and will not drive long-term market trends unless the event itself persists or escalates. Given that gold has rallied from 3,946 last Friday to a recent high of 4,116, the bullish momentum has already been largely priced in. Even if the bulls still have some strength left today, we must remain vigilant against the risk of a sudden reversal and collapse.
Furthermore, stock markets have recovered somewhat after their earlier sell-off, and the U.S. dollar has performed relatively well recently. As these assets rebound, market panic surrounding gold should ease slightly, thereby weakening the explosive momentum of the gold bulls. While China-U.S. tariff tensions have reignited, the new tariffs have not yet taken effect, and the future trajectory of this issue remains uncertain. Regarding geopolitical risks, tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat, and while there have been threats of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, these have so far been more about intimidation than action. A nuclear escalation, after all, would trigger global panic, and the international community is unlikely to allow the situation to spiral out of control—instead, tensions are expected to de-escalate to some extent.
Trading Strategy
We remain bullish on the long-term trend but do not recommend chasing highs. Consider entering short positions on gold within the 4,050–4,058 range.
For specific trading decisions, please follow my real-time updates. I post my trading ideas and strategies daily. If you lack a plan or clear direction for gold trading and struggle to achieve consistent, stable profits, you can refer to and follow my updates as a reference and guide to help you avoid mistakes.
For today, as gold has a tendency to trend in one direction (either bullish or bearish) on such days, how should we decide between going long or short? Gold opened around 4,110, dipped slightly in early trading to a low near 4,106 before rebounding to 4,116, and then consolidated at elevated levels before moving up to around 4,150. The bullish momentum remains formidable—even amid high-level consolidation, the bulls still have lingering strength. Notably, calls for a rate cut from Federal Reserve officials are growing louder, and the probability of a rate cut in October is now nearly a foregone conclusion. This has further fueled market buyers’ enthusiasm for the bullish trend.
In particular, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak today. If Powell echoes the current dovish rhetoric about rate cuts, the bullish momentum will likely continue—after all, rate cuts are an enormous boon for gold bulls. In such a scenario, Powell’s comments could prompt the market to increase bets on rate cuts, providing the gold bulls with a steady stream of momentum and driving gold to continue making new all-time highs.
However, it’s worth noting that Powell could also surprise by striking a more hawkish tone and pushing back against further rate cuts. The reason is simple: the U.S. government shutdown. Due to the ongoing shutdown, the Fed lacks sufficient economic data to support its decisions, which may leave insufficient justification for a rate cut. Additionally, the current chaos in the U.S. economy and the renewed escalation of tariff tensions have further constrained the Fed’s policy options. Powell previously highlighted the impact of tariffs on Fed policy, so there’s a real possibility his hawkish remarks today could drastically reduce market expectations for a rate cut. If this happens, gold faces significant risk of a sharp collapse.
Another point to consider is the timeliness of market news: the explosive impact of any event is temporary and will not drive long-term market trends unless the event itself persists or escalates. Given that gold has rallied from 3,946 last Friday to a recent high of 4,116, the bullish momentum has already been largely priced in. Even if the bulls still have some strength left today, we must remain vigilant against the risk of a sudden reversal and collapse.
Furthermore, stock markets have recovered somewhat after their earlier sell-off, and the U.S. dollar has performed relatively well recently. As these assets rebound, market panic surrounding gold should ease slightly, thereby weakening the explosive momentum of the gold bulls. While China-U.S. tariff tensions have reignited, the new tariffs have not yet taken effect, and the future trajectory of this issue remains uncertain. Regarding geopolitical risks, tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat, and while there have been threats of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, these have so far been more about intimidation than action. A nuclear escalation, after all, would trigger global panic, and the international community is unlikely to allow the situation to spiral out of control—instead, tensions are expected to de-escalate to some extent.
Trading Strategy
We remain bullish on the long-term trend but do not recommend chasing highs. Consider entering short positions on gold within the 4,050–4,058 range.
For specific trading decisions, please follow my real-time updates. I post my trading ideas and strategies daily. If you lack a plan or clear direction for gold trading and struggle to achieve consistent, stable profits, you can refer to and follow my updates as a reference and guide to help you avoid mistakes.
Trade active
Please note that article updates are timely and the market is changing rapidly. Please pay attention to more timely market changes.Trade closed: target reached
Gold short position has been established, waiting for the decline. Counter-trend operation, small position operation
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Join my telegram channel for free- t.me/GoldBitcoinSharing To follow the link, click on the globe icon on the next line
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.