support broken, lower TF potentially joining major =SELL trend

## EUR/USD Short Setup - Technical Analysis

### Market Structure Analysis

**Key Price Points:**
- Point 1-3: Higher high established, confirming bullish momentum
- Point 2: Became major support after point 3 exceeded point 1's high
- Point 3-4: Price broke below point 2, confirming bearish reversal
- Point 3: Now established as major resistance (solid high)
- Point 5: Retest of major resistance at point 3

### Trade Setup

**Entry:** 1.1720 (pending confirmation)
- Wait for full candle close below this level
- Require bearish candle structure for confirmation

**Stop Loss:** 1.1785
- Above the double top at points 3 and 5
- Clear invalidation level

**Target:** 1.1608
- Next chaos theory zone
- Risk/Reward: 2.14

### Technical Confluences

1. **Market Structure:** Lower highs and lower lows established on 4H and Daily timeframes
2. **RSI:** Price at second standard deviation (overbought zone)
3. **Elliott Wave:** Potential wave 3 completion, expecting wave 4 decline
4. **Chaos Theory Indicator:** 67% probability of reaching lower zone once triggered (based on 2,400 candle sample)
5. **Dow Theory:** Trend alignment across multiple timeframes

### Risk Management

- Position Size: 2% of account maximum
- Breakeven: Move stop to entry at 1.1700
- Partial Profit: Consider taking 50% at 1.1650

### Entry Criteria

1. Price must close below 1.1720 (full candle body)
2. Increased volume on breakdown preferred
3. No entry on wicks alone

### Current Status

Alert set at 1.1720. Waiting for bearish confirmation before entry.

### Notes

- If price reaches 1.1780-1.1790 first, expect potential liquidity sweep before reversal
- No trade if proper confirmation doesn't occur
- Setup invalidated above 1.1785