Since 2020, 
MSFT has been in a powerful and sustained uptrend, delivering a 338% total return while forming three textbook bull flags. The move has been supported by consistently strong fundamentals, with only one earnings miss in the last five years, reinforcing institutional confidence and long-term accumulation.
Phase 1 – The First Flagpole & Measured Move
The first major flagpole began in early 2020, generating a 168% advance before retracing ~38% — a classic one-third pullback that confirmed the underlying strength of the trend.
From there, price broke out cleanly, retested the upper flag trendline, and completed a 1:1 measured move of the flagpole, producing an 83% gain from $249 → $464.
This first structure set the tone for what followed: consistent impulse → retrace → consolidation → continuation — each wave adhering closely to measured technical proportions.
Phase 2 – The Second Flag: Reduced Retracement, Stronger Momentum
The second bull flag mirrored the earlier setup but displayed even stronger internal strength. The retracement was only 25% of the prior flagpole, again less than one-third, showing momentum preservation across timeframes.
Volume behavior followed the same institutional pattern:
Peak volume at the start of the flagpole (breakout phase)
Diminishing volume during the consolidation (cool-off)
Re-expanding volume on breakout and continuation
This repeated volume structure supports the idea of professional participation through all phases of the advance — accumulation, digestion, and resumption.
Phase 3 – The Current Flag & Extension Structure
The third flagpole began inside the second flag around April, marked by a sharp surge in participation and price strength.
This breakout displayed no retest of the top trendline, a strong sign of buyer conviction and demand persistence.
Interestingly, this measured move is not based on the flagpole, but on a 1:1 projection of the flag itself — an uncommon but equally valid continuation pattern seen in strong secular uptrends.
The structure now sits beneath key resistance near $554.
If momentum and volume sustain above this level, the pattern implies another historic 1:1 measured move similar to prior flag extensions — targeting the $700–$720 zone.
Technical Summary
Trend: Long-term bullish (structural higher highs/lows)
Pattern: Three bull flags across five years
Momentum: Strong — retracements decreasing from 38% → 25%
Volume Behavior: Institutional – expansion → contraction → breakout
Resistance: $554 (critical breakout zone)
Target Range: $700–$720 (1:1 projection)
Support Zones: $512 → $455 → $433
Market Context
Microsoft remains one of the most structurally sound equities within the NASDAQ mega-cap group — supported by stable earnings, strong free cash flow, and leadership across AI and cloud infrastructure.
Technically, the rhythm of three measured flags in sequence — each with smaller retracements and consistent 1:1 follow-through — is a rare example of a textbook long-term bull trend in action.
Unless the pattern fails with a sustained break below the $455–$433 zone, the larger trajectory continues to favor trend continuation into Q1–Q2 2026, potentially achieving the $700+ measured target.
Final Notes
Volume continues to confirm strength across all impulse phases.
Retracement depth has reduced with each cycle, indicating sustained institutional control.
Watch for breakout confirmation on volume expansion above $554 for continuation.
If the pattern completes the expected 1:1 flagpole extension,MSFT could soon print another leg higher in its long-term structural bull trend — potentially marking a fourth measured flagpole in the making.
For educational and technical analysis purposes only.
MSFT has been in a powerful and sustained uptrend, delivering a 338% total return while forming three textbook bull flags. The move has been supported by consistently strong fundamentals, with only one earnings miss in the last five years, reinforcing institutional confidence and long-term accumulation.Phase 1 – The First Flagpole & Measured Move
The first major flagpole began in early 2020, generating a 168% advance before retracing ~38% — a classic one-third pullback that confirmed the underlying strength of the trend.
From there, price broke out cleanly, retested the upper flag trendline, and completed a 1:1 measured move of the flagpole, producing an 83% gain from $249 → $464.
This first structure set the tone for what followed: consistent impulse → retrace → consolidation → continuation — each wave adhering closely to measured technical proportions.
Phase 2 – The Second Flag: Reduced Retracement, Stronger Momentum
The second bull flag mirrored the earlier setup but displayed even stronger internal strength. The retracement was only 25% of the prior flagpole, again less than one-third, showing momentum preservation across timeframes.
Volume behavior followed the same institutional pattern:
Peak volume at the start of the flagpole (breakout phase)
Diminishing volume during the consolidation (cool-off)
Re-expanding volume on breakout and continuation
This repeated volume structure supports the idea of professional participation through all phases of the advance — accumulation, digestion, and resumption.
Phase 3 – The Current Flag & Extension Structure
The third flagpole began inside the second flag around April, marked by a sharp surge in participation and price strength.
This breakout displayed no retest of the top trendline, a strong sign of buyer conviction and demand persistence.
Interestingly, this measured move is not based on the flagpole, but on a 1:1 projection of the flag itself — an uncommon but equally valid continuation pattern seen in strong secular uptrends.
The structure now sits beneath key resistance near $554.
If momentum and volume sustain above this level, the pattern implies another historic 1:1 measured move similar to prior flag extensions — targeting the $700–$720 zone.
Technical Summary
Trend: Long-term bullish (structural higher highs/lows)
Pattern: Three bull flags across five years
Momentum: Strong — retracements decreasing from 38% → 25%
Volume Behavior: Institutional – expansion → contraction → breakout
Resistance: $554 (critical breakout zone)
Target Range: $700–$720 (1:1 projection)
Support Zones: $512 → $455 → $433
Market Context
Microsoft remains one of the most structurally sound equities within the NASDAQ mega-cap group — supported by stable earnings, strong free cash flow, and leadership across AI and cloud infrastructure.
Technically, the rhythm of three measured flags in sequence — each with smaller retracements and consistent 1:1 follow-through — is a rare example of a textbook long-term bull trend in action.
Unless the pattern fails with a sustained break below the $455–$433 zone, the larger trajectory continues to favor trend continuation into Q1–Q2 2026, potentially achieving the $700+ measured target.
Final Notes
Volume continues to confirm strength across all impulse phases.
Retracement depth has reduced with each cycle, indicating sustained institutional control.
Watch for breakout confirmation on volume expansion above $554 for continuation.
If the pattern completes the expected 1:1 flagpole extension,
MSFT could soon print another leg higher in its long-term structural bull trend — potentially marking a fourth measured flagpole in the making.For educational and technical analysis purposes only.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.