BTC Exhaustion at $100K Could Trigger $MSTR Structural Weakness

3 days ago

I’ve been tracking Bitcoin’s price action, and buyers look exhausted at these levels. Since July, BTC has been topping out. There’s strong support at the $100K area — with the 200MA right around $103K — this zone is the battleground. If buyers lose it, we’re looking at a possible break of structure at $100K.

We all know MSTR isn’t really a software company anymore — it’s basically a Bitcoin Treasury play. The model is simple: raise capital (debt, equity), buy more BTC, repeat. That means if BTC breaks lower, MSTR usually gets hit even harder. Leverage cuts both ways.

For me, $317 is the key level. If MSTR loses that, I’m targeting $300. I’ve already picked up some long puts at the $295 strike. My rule: if the premium drops 30%, I cut it as a wrong play. If it holds, I’ll ride it until it’s at-the-money.

As always — manage risk like your survival depends on it. Because it does.

yesterday

Trade active

The $295 strike long put strike works, I'm trimming here at this level at $307-305 level today, to cut some risk of premium decay if this go sideways at $305. In trading, our job is to take the profit, follow the plan wisely and again, manage the risk.