MU Weekly Trade: Oversold but Bears in Control

MU Weekly PUT Signal

Ticker: MU
Date: 2025-11-17
Signal: BUY PUTS
Confidence: 65% | Conviction: Medium
Strike: $242.50
Entry Range: $9.35 – $10.20 | Mid: $9.77
Target 1: $15.64 (≈60% gain)
Target 2: $19.54 (≈100% gain)
Stop Loss: $7.31 (≈25% risk)
Expiry: 2025-11-21 (4 days)
Position Size: 2% of portfolio

Technical Snapshot:

Current Price: $241.29 | VWAP: $245.29 → bearish alignment

Weekly Momentum: -3.90% (BEARISH)

RSI: 9.0 → extremely oversold, short-term bounce possible

EMA alignment: bearish → confirms downtrend

Weekly range: $230.16 – $260.58 → trading near support

Options Flow:

Put/Call Ratio: 3.19 → strong institutional bearish positioning

Unusual activity at $100 PUTs → potential hedge by institutions

Gamma risk: Moderate

AI / Market Vision:

Katy AI: NEUTRAL trend with bearish bias, 15-min chart shows consistent downward pressure

Predicted target: $237.73 | Stop: $244.91

Composite signals align with overall bearish outlook

News & Sentiment:

Rosenblatt raised PT to $300 (bullish)

Broader tech sentiment negative (Dow down 300+)

Hedge fund accumulation vs retail selling → mixed signals

Risk Level: MODERATE ⚠️

RSI oversold may trigger short-term bounce

Medium conviction → position sizing suggested at 2%

Monitor broader market; exit if price breaks above VWAP $245.29

Edge / Rationale:

Combines bearish AI projection, technical breakdown, and heavy put flow

Weekly expiry captures 4-day decline

Conservative strike (Δ ≈ 0.506) balances risk and probability

Tight stop loss protects capital while allowing normal volatility