NAS100 Breakout Watch: Compression Before Expansion

The Nasdaq-100 index is trading at 25,130, and the intraday price action is setting up what could be a high-probability move. Multiple technical frameworks are converging at a critical decision point. Let's dissect what's unfolding across the timeframes. 💹

Market Context & Structure

We're observing a Symmetrical Triangle pattern on the 1H chart that's been coiling for the past several hours. This compression zone between 25,080-25,185 represents a battleground between bulls and bears. The apex is approaching, which historically precedes volatility expansion.

From a Dow Theory lens, the intermediate trend remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows intact on the 4H timeframe. The recent pullback appears corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting the broader uptrend is still in play.

Wyckoff Analysis 📉

The overnight action exhibits classic Wyckoff accumulation characteristics within our consolidation range. We've seen:

• Spring action down to 25,050 (stop hunt below support)
  
• Absorption of selling pressure with diminishing volume
  
• A Last Point of Support (LPS) forming around 25,090
  

This accumulation schematic suggests smart money positioning for the next markup phase.

Wave Count Perspective 🌊

Elliott Wave structure indicates we're likely completing a wave (4) triangle correction within a larger impulse. The internal labeling suggests:

• Wave A-B-C-D-E triangle pattern nearing completion
  
• Wave (5) target zone: 25,350-25,450
  
• Invalidation level: Break below 25,020
  

The alternation principle supports this count, as wave (2) was a sharp zigzag, making a triangle for wave (4) textbook behavior.

Critical Levels & Zones 🎯

Upside Targets:

• T1: 25,245 (initial resistance + prior pivot)
  
• T2: 25,380 (Fibonacci extension 1.618)
  
• T3: 25,525 (measured move from triangle)
  

Support Foundation:

• S1: 25,085 (triangle baseline + EMA cluster)
  
• S2: 25,020 (swing low + psychological)
  
• S3: 24,890 (major demand zone)
  

Indicator Dashboard ⚡

• RSI (1H): 52.4 - neutral, coiling with price
  
• Stochastic: Curling up from 35, bullish crossover forming
  
• VWAP: Currently at 25,118 acting as dynamic pivot
  
• Ichimoku: Price inside the cloud (equilibrium), Tenkan/Kijun bullish twist imminent
  
• Volume: Declining in range (typical pre-breakout behavior)
  

Harmonic Setup Recognition

A Gartley pattern completed at the 25,050 level with:
- X: 24,890
- A: 25,280
- B: 25,050 (0.618 retracement)
- D: PRZ achieved

This harmonic structure aligns perfectly with our Elliott wave count, adding confluence to the bullish thesis.

Actionable Trading Strategies 💼

Strategy 1 - Triangle Breakout:

Entry: 25,190 (break above triangle resistance + retest)
Target 1: 25,280
Target 2: 25,420
Stop: 25,080

Strategy 2 - Support Zone Buy:

Entry Zone: 25,085-25,095 (limit orders)
Target 1: 25,200
Target 2: 25,320
Stop: 25,035

Multi-Timeframe Sync 🕐
- 5M: Micro pullback entries and exits
- 15M: Trend confirmation via EMA alignment
- 1H: Primary pattern and trade direction
- 4H: Structural bias verification

The Bottom Line

NAS100 is coiled like a spring at 25,130. The technical evidence suggests accumulation is wrapping up, with multiple methodologies pointing toward upside resolution. The 25,190 breakout level is your line in the sand—above it, the path opens to 25,400+. Below 25,080 invalidates the immediate bullish setup.

Stay alert for the breakout, but don't force trades inside the range. Patience now equals profits later. ⚡

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Risk Disclosure: Trading derivatives carries substantial risk. This analysis is educational only and not financial advice. Trade responsibly.