QQQ Breadth Divergence

Rallies can continue (AAPL, TSLA & MSFT pulling weight), but FOMO risk is high if breadth doesn’t expand

• Unless NDTH starts climbing back above 60-65% in the mid-term, the rally will stay fragile & that’s the threshold for a “healthy” broad bull leg
  
• If NDFI fails quickly after the recovery from the August NFP bounce & rolls over, it could signal a near-term top even as price makes marginal highs
  

FOMO surges often fade within days unless institutions step in so you’ll see reversal candles soon after

• NDTH is a filter for real institutional participation
  
• NDFI tells you if retail/momentum bursts are broadening out or just noise
  

Based on the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) plus breadth indicators/QQQ heat map

• The current setup is bullishly biased, but with cracks, so not a blowoff top, but possibly topping behavior if breadth & spec positioning both roll over
  
• If speculator net position drops further, that would signal growing risk aversion
  
• If commercials significantly increase their short exposure, that often precedes pullbacks
  

Does NDFI or NDTH start meaningfully rising?

• If yes, that would validate strength; if they continue lagging, warning signs accumulate
  
• Price reaction to macro/policy news, since if specs seem more cautious, negative macro (rates, inflation, etc) could provoke sharper selloffs as spec longs unwind