Short

Updated

NQ Short (10-27-25, Week 5)

NAZ with O/N Gap open to lock in the Long chase and clean out the short stops. Regarding Friday short, I always go flat into the close. The O/N continues be used to lift it with ease. This may be blow off top day into balance of Friday - Monday Long Play. Netflix had the -10% move and has not recovered, NAZ is using the off session to Rig it up. Drop may not be until Tuesday, yellow arrow is range for retest should upper stall out. Current gap fill likely either way. Pump/Dump into Open, Gap up in O/N and expect some Tweets. When this stalls, look short. AP on Friday, voided by Gap.

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The Friday O/N session, primarily the majority of the move was the (circle) 200 point 1 minute move. This was then followed up with a flat reg session Friday. Next we have a Gap Up 270 point open O/N session on Sunday. Basically 1 way at record speed, 1 minute move and a Gap (no time) move. 770 is level to watch near Open of Reg Session.

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Drop offset in play for any trade talks or Fed Day problems. Netflix is only up 1% and still lower 9% since the drop. All Gap an O/N looking for Reg Session reaction with some balance or selling volume. IDS27, NAZ will not go below either MA and keeps bouncing off. Upside down indicators that usually lead to a major drop. While NAZ is clearly approaching the upper 7 Week Target, I just do not like in which the way this has lifted up. Off Session and low volume.

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Since bounce off KL 24,900 the 30M candles are stacking perfectly (except for circle). Look for stacking to slow or stop when shorting set up, pull back, drop tests and sideways. All this with lower volume and major (short time moves).

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Slight divergence developing on IDS75. May not be until Tuesday should Monday lift play out from F-M Long Play. Reg Session reaction is key today.

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850 drop test Short to 770. 1st attempt with 50 point stop. Scalp any hold on drop and let stops play out.

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850 - 900 TZ

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Buying on red valleys should flip to selling on white peaks. Again, huge move in record speed and lower volume.

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Just a weak or strange breakout of the Churn Zone of past 4 weeks. May be wrong and this is the new price action of a Bull, mentioned that it just seemed off last week. That could be it, sticking with the idea that normal historical cause/effect to resurface. If this continues, Hedge Funds will close their doors, trading firms will move to BTD/FOMO shops and indexing with Vanguard will be the strategy.

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Drop test target here. Just watch the 30M Candles for the turn.

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850 showing resistance, gave 50 point scalp and back up.

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Scalping Short from 850 with 770 and under break, Netflix is flat.

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May see sideways all day just like Friday, until the O/N. Why not, it works.

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Lower 30M candles, may see Diablo develop. FYI, if you are or were Long you did well pay 2-3 days. If you are trading, you have had not much to play with as the moves have happened in basically a few minutes. We need to see the NAZ explode up or this is coming back.

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Hammer Short under 850, again same stop.

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Needs to get under 800 1st then 775 and maybe it goes.

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885 has to reject or going up. Head fake or pop here.

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Stacking is back, looking for 790 retest and reaction.

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AP below needs to break lower.

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Stop at 950 and adding at 885 Short

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NAZ should fall into 100 lower sideways range or Blast UPWARD here at 25890.

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IDS75 Divergence, letting it ride, points to play with.

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NAZ appears to be in Slow Motion gear and moving like an inchworm higher, almost invisible. This looks like Holiday PA and not sure if it can even fit the Bullish/strong description. 950 is TZ, Original was 900. Drop test has to show up or traders may surrender and come back tomorrow. Even if you go Long, it is not going anywhere.

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PA so slow that if you want to trade this you have to go to a 10 Bar on the chart. If you are trading a minute chart, go to 1-3 minute range. IDS10 is below.

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Update of 9/29 Review Post, Click to view.

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We have some seriously low volume so for through the day. Still looking at IDS75 Divergence and may add to the Short or close and reload after the next O/N session.

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Target on Drop Test and move be biggest move of day. If Hit, look for reaction back up quick or weak bounce.

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Biggest move of Reg Session (above call). For those that were following me a few years ago, the NO Strength NAZ is back. NS NAZ is very hard to trade since it moves like a sloth, but will get higher. When the Sloth stops you can barley see it and then it drops like a rock. What I am looking for here (scalp) prior to going in the Pump/Dump O/N.

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YTD NDX, 2 specks are Friday and today. Not 1 but 2 gaps to fill and usually will happen.

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So the volume today will be the lowest day of past 20. When a true Bull is running it usually will have high volume in the Reg Session. Something is off or in the works as this continues to play out. Sticking with the Short side as this plays out. Stopped at 950, will add in O/N if opportunity.

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10/28 Update, NAZ hit ML of Channel, not expecting much today during Reg Session. Range day of sideways slow PA. NAZ is at upper range of Posted arrow/top. You can try Short here but may need to wait until tomorrow or Thursday. Volume continues to have reduced and direction is Long (with very slow movement). Hard for me to trade, I may just wait and drop 20 contracts on a capitulation type short (after this busywork noise).

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NAZ has moved 1,100 points in 2 days (Thursday O/N through current), big move with some Tricks and low volume. I may be off with the Short Trade or early. I noticed the hair was raised up on my dog's back when he looked at the chart.
Not sure what to do with that (joke). This Long move needs some BEEF (where is the BEEF).

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26080 is 100 point short scalp.

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26080 is stop, should drop or pop.

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26030 -26080 is TZ for break out

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Reg Session PA is key today.

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At some point, 25k should be retested.

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062 and under is 2nd push lower and above is 80-90

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Weakness.

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My Dog is now foaming at the mouth, What?

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Up in O/N (Gaps included) and lower is Reg Session. What I am looking at. May try lift in Dead Zone.

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26016 is lower MA and below is a must.

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16-45 is range here.

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Need to see high Neg Ticks under 45 or this will float back up.

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45 looks like pop or hook short

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Lower stop and watch the Ticks for 16 2nd hit.

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Normally the move back up (if strong) would have some force behind it. No force is usually a clean out fake move back to low (16 or 08).

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Going to walk the Dog, back to snail PA that shows nothing.

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Bearish under ML O/R, head fakes and clean outs above until it breaks higher.

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PA movements

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Feels like Holiday Price Action and I think the pop up was the Santa Clause Rally that come early. Strange days my friends. One Tweet or Swan may be all it needs to turn this. Would think differently if lift was not done in the way it moved up.

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Watch the Diablo and rotation around it.

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Watch these levels and reactions near, the Danger Zone defense will show up with lower moves.

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Break Pumping will continue, question is why? LET IT FLOW. NAZ wants to break lower, my Dog told me. Thing is may not see that with this low volume, that needs to pick up and may not until Fed Day.

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Back later, would you go Long here? Think about that. And why is this struggling to get higher?

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Stall out should be followed up with another drop test. This could go as high as 094. Actually good signs today with Reg Session PA. Hit at 08-16 created this move and was your exit on Hold. You could of gone Long back up in range (I did not).

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Dead Zone lift that I mentioned earlier, needs to get above or stay sideways until the O/N. Anything less will drop (or should).

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Trying above and will need to stay above O/R high (094). Again, in Dead Zone and after O/R Drop, needs to stay up and this is normal and may set up better short.

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Watch head fake AP lower indicator

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NDX is starting to look like Swiss cheese.

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This is what you are fighting, 30 minute 100 point pop (in dead zone). Most moves up are happening during the low or off session periods. Look for turn in pattern.

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Shorting back to 062, Low Volume again. 50 point stop

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Adding at 180. Stop 210.

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Adding at 200 and stop at 250

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Stop or blow off Top drop.

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Adding at 207 and stop at 300

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27,000 or drop

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NAZ continues to lift on negative Ticks. Big move on the way.

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Adding at 205

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My Dog is HOWLING at me.

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Stop at 350 and will hold.

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These are failed auctions and usually get retested or collapse.

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160 is target here.

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All this and still under 400k on NQ volume.

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Should try 160 and may bounce so Close stops or let it ride.

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My Dog just attacked some BTD/FOMO's, 160 Hit

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Out on Shorts watch the final 2 minutes of the day.

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FA Short, the start of the break down. O/N to rig it back up some.

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Most of this move was by way of the off session. Not what you want to see and usually will get a retest. Just go back to the 19 day up move that was erased in 2 days. Drop Tests build on weak lifts.

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10/29 Update, NAZ with O/N 1way up Rig Team hit the Upper Target, this is the 7 week target and now Turn Zone.

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SDS27 view

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OK, here we are again. The white arrow is the heavy volume day and yellow are the low volume sessions. You can see the narrow PA in yellow days and the development of Divergence below. Normally this will lead to a drop test or drop. It will happen just not sure when. This chart along with the Swiss cheese NDX chart is saying "retest lower". Good luck today, I do not usually trade on Fed Day. Will update if I do.

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While I have the Bear mindset, you can use the KL's as targets for Longs, opposite direction moves and such. It is my opinion that we will see a major Flash Crash type move (sucker punch) at some point. The concern is with the Long Side and the heavy concentration of 5-6 stocks, brainwashing of AI, only buying, etc. The balance will show up at some point.

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Under O/N we have some FA's at 26,000. 300 point range is normal should we see some lower retesting today.

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Hook Short or Pop under 290

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Under 290 Short and above 290 Long.

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Long play may have limited move up.

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Watch the V drop to yellow arrow pop or drop at MA. This is providing 290 rejects again.

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Just watch 290 and the rotation around, sideways to Fed Decision or major drop is the idea.

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NDX Chart, ugly since was done on low volume and such.

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This is the Before Fed Decision chart and I will post the After

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If you are trading this, KL and plays until "All Hell breaks Lose".

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Here is the V Trade, need to see reaction here. Lower is one option and the other is BTD/FOMO with the crowd.

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290 is the key here. Up/Down is normal dropping PA until it breaks fast and deep.

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High volume so far as we look for it to explode today. Still leaning to the Short side.

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NAZ drop will appears to struggle to get lower with push/pull PA. Stall outs up will drop back, so on and so on until the bottom falls out. The idea that this 2,100 / 9% pop from recent low happened off session (primarily), may open the easy 50% drop retracement.

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Once again the O/N lift cushion is the only reason we are not much lower. The day this changes direction, lower we go and big.

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Minutes until Decision, Equities are positioned to absorb a drop. The idea of a blast off move up here may be the knee jerk head fake. Buyers will need sellers in order to go much higher. We have had little to no selling over the past 2,100 points.

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KL 290 keeps rejecting.

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254 is new KL to watch.

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Kook Short at 254 or between KL's.

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2 hits and need to break lower

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3rd hit and tying hard.

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Funny, still above O/N lift. Only other event would be some Bad Tech Earnings reports. We are priced at perfection and that may be the only way this really does a drop test. Those are after the Close and we know how those usually go. Staying with Short side as larger move (next few days).

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4th and here we go.

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Through and in the Gap.

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There it is

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26,000 Watch it.

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NQ bid/ask spread are insane 10 points or so

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Lines are Fib Levels, long way to go. TZ was accurate and will provide a trading range.

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Magic, NAZ is back to FLAT. This is the P/P that I mentioned.

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Heading South again, The whole thing is rigged.

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Back to and under TZ

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After hours, Big Tech losses, may explain the lift prior.

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191 is KL to watch, back tomorrow.

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Tricky day, we need to see a 1 way drop to drop test these levels. Snail moves up are fading.

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10/30 update, Push/Pull is active and the O/N volume is high. This should follow through in the Reg Session. KL 26,290 and KL 26,191 are levels to watch. Netflix dropped 10% and has not come back. Now Meta -7% and Microsoft -3% have joined the decline. That is about half of Mag7 leaving Invidia the one to watch. Yesterday we saw KL 290 drop and 400. Look for more downside movement (after pop stall outs) to show up.

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IDS35

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Notice the quick drops on high volume.

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ML Channel rejection at TZ

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Range today

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Tone is shifting and watch the 26,000 reaction. NAZ will continue to struggle to get lower and then break for a decent drop test.

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Continue to play KL Trades (Opposite, To and From) until Break Out. Quick Drops (Hooks) will show up after Snail lifts.

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Tweets, Tricks and typical games may not be able to control the Reg Session volume today. Fed has started to show its view with future cuts (doubt), this will be bad for Long Only managers should we get under near Danger Zone 26,000 and then stay under. This all may be redirected up with good after hour reports and if not, way lower we go. Timing these (I am usually early) is difficult and the O/N is The BOSS and can redirect a drop in today's Reg Session or accelerate it tonight. Can't post all trades when the PA gets going so use KL's and use stops.

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Next move an in ML of range

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Range

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KL Opposite Direction to Danger Zone (26,000), Watch the U Turn or NOT. Notice all the direction changes since yesterday, sign of a problem for Longs. May be Pro's exiting, we have seen this before and it just U Turns. Stay with KL Trades.

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Danger Zone hit and we will see up/down inside DZ and KL 191.

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Just expect P/P to pick up and expect Super Quick Drops on stall outs.

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This is where the struggle to get lower comes in and just makes you go insane, part of the deal. Good Luck too fast to post.

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Spike up was a try to get through KL191, Opposite direction at 191 with stop at 192 was the trade. Target is 505 back down or DZ.

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50%, not 505

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Spikes are Longs gasping for air.

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Before they drowned or the US Coast Guard picks them up, wait are they working??

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DZ keeps getting retested

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Pop or Hook short at 26000

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No pop is hook and Pop is no short

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Has to pass 50 or retesting 26K

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DZ is being defended by the LONGS.

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50-150 is range here.

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NDX, 1 gap filled and 2 more below. Next week or so.

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NAZ back to O/N low and under will drop and above may float up.

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Looking like sideways to the O/N for the F-M Long Play. Break out of range is signal.

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Caution on the Long play here, This can Head Fake with a Hook and Air Pocket. Or, it can go up. Need to watch the Price and Lower indicator.

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Captain HOOK

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Back near Close. The game is that most anybody can play the BTD Long Play and very few can play the Sell The Rig Short Game. This traps the FOMO's and they have zero defense, other than to sell. The P/P is used to test the waters and no (significant) drop will float back up for next attempt.

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Arrows are levels to watch and NAZ will need to get above all or lower we go. Up/Down is noise until it stays above these.

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So the up move is a range move and a lower move is the Break Out. We may see a Pop Drop so hang tight. Doubt the Drop Pop 1st and other is just a Drop. Volume is above recent average and can pop higher over next 2 hours. After hour reports are the hold up here. If they are not perfect, get ready.

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Back under DZ, just Google and Apple to go under and this will get going. So much is riding on AI and the Mag7. Not good to put all eggs in 1 basket, unless you can fix the outcome. The O/N will really have a test tonight.

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26k-795 Range Now.

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Above 25910 may pop

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25910 is KL down here to 26k

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They are using failed auctions on the selling side to drop it. These usually do get filled on reverse move. O/N may knee jerk back up.

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There you go. 26k hit

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10/31 Update, O/N with the lift. 25,910 pop call did POP and is rotating around KL 191. Looking for the range (arrow) and to see if the typical predictable Friday-Monday Long Play does its thing, why stop now. Look both ways today as the Gov't Shutdown may be the curveball and next issue for a sell off.

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May see O/N Pump/Dump open drop to KL 26,062 that creates a Drop/Pop in the Reg Session Dead Zone with lift to KL 290 and then 400 range. No hold at KL 062 would be a Strong Short for 25,900 retest.

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NAZ could get rejected hard at Upper 7 Week Top Target, watch for this reaction. Break out of Churn Zone is the test up here as we revisit (by way of O/N lift, keep this in mind). We are in a potential BTD/FOMO trap that could provide an exit opportunity for sellers. Volume is picking up as selling has picked up.

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KL 191 here may see Hook Short or POP, NTZ around 191

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Hook Test

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167 is KL support here, under may drop to lower KL

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Pump/Dump to KL 062 hit and F-M Long Play above 062.

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KL to KL trading.

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Retest for the bigger move.

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Force on the downside has increased.

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Diablo and today feels like a Quick Drop is developing.

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Just notice that the O/N provided a 140 point cushion at 26062. The NAZ can drop another 140 points and be FLAT. Below it can go 200-300 and that would be a major range for the day but only show a drop of the 200 or so.

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Hook Short or pop time.

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Hooked

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Looks like the O/N is the only upward moves in PA. Past 3 Reg Sessions have been selling. The long standing O/N Rig Lift play may be under pressure as it has been working for about 3 years.

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25910 KL from yesterday bounced again, KL to watch.

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020-040 May reject and send it back to 910

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Watch the Ticks at 020

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May spike up and drop

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AP and slight rejection at 020

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Not a typical F-M Long Play Friday, O/N will have to Rescue. That trade may be fading.

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NAZ still under Diablo, a break above will pop and below will drop.

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Tricky setting up a nasty hook should it drop.

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FYI, NAZ will turn after multiple hits and rejections at a KL. Big spikes can be head fakes and traps.

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400 point range day, 50% Fib is KL 26,062.

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Needs to stay above the Diablo

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No drop by the close and the O/N will jack this up. I am not expecting that and looking for a major head fake. Feels like a drop offset for Sunday Open Gap lower. Needs to pass 140. Major FA's at 26,045, should retest.

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26120 going Short. Stop is 100 up.

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FA Zone and 1st target on drop.

Trade closed manually

FA Zone hit, 2nd target is Diablo Retest. Selling is back. These major lifts inside of a drop are normal and will bait the FOMO's.

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Diablo Hit.

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NAZ Under the Diablo for the Lower Gap Open on Sunday. I think the media should read up about Price Action, have a good weekend.

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Still going, Strong Short under 910 and most likely Gap Open will be under that.

MAZing

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MAZing