NVDA | Wave (3) in Play at Key Consolidation Zone

NVIDIA’s rally since April was powered by AI infrastructure demand and a rebound in risk sentiment after tariff and export-control concerns were digested. Strong hyperscaler capex and global AI partnerships reinforced the bottom-up story, while a broader tech bid lifted growth equities. Yet, the same catalysts pose risks: valuation stretch, regulatory noise, and questions on AI monetisation timelines leave room for volatility.

Technical Lens:

Price action suggests NVDA is tracking a larger wave (3). However, the sub-wave structure remains unproven, with only a shallow 23.6% retracement, leaving scope for further correction. Current consolidation sits at a decision point, supported by RSI, which remains mid-range with room to extend higher.

Scenarios:

If breakout holds: Momentum can carry into the next impulsive leg of wave (3), supported by structural demand.
If breakout fails: Price could rotate lower toward the anchored VWAP from April 2025 lows, a key support zone.

Catalysts:

Ongoing AI-driven hyperscaler spend and sovereign partnerships (upside).
Renewed U.S.–China export restrictions or capex digestion (downside).
Macro policy shifts and market positioning into year-end.

Takeaway:

This is a consolidation decision point within wave (3). Breakout = continuation, failure = correction toward April VWAP support.