QQQ Early Topping Behavior

Short-term momentum is stretched so watch for a potential pullback to $608 then $603 if selling follows through

1. Price vs MTD VWAP

• MTD VWAP ≈ $603.7, with +1σ ≈ $611 & +2σ ≈ $613
  
• QQQ is pressing the upper (+2σ) edge of the VWAP envelope & that’s statistically extended
  
• Historically, price rarely sustains above this zone without cooling off toward +1σ ($608-$609) or the VWAP itself ($603-$604)
  
• Overbought short-term; risk of mean reversion if momentum fades
  

2. Volume Profile

• Volume into the close rose sharply, but without broad range expansion
  
• That kind of volume spike after an extended move often means distribution (profit-taking at highs) rather than fresh breakout energy
  
• The closing volume spike without strong follow-through suggests distribution (smart money selling into strength)
  
• That’s also characteristic of the transition from Wave 5 to wave a (meaning the first corrective down-leg may already be starting)
  
• Likely aiming for $588-$590 first & potentially $532 over the next 4-6 weeks if the full correction unfolds
  

3. RSI (15m)
RSI ≈ 68 & curling lower from overbought

• A bearish cross of RSI below its signal line after sitting near 70 is a classic short-term momentum-loss trigger
  
• Supports the idea of a pullback or consolidation within 1-2 sessions
  

4. Stochastic Oscillator

• Fast %K & %D have both rolled over sharply (≈ 34 & 18)
  
• Coming off multiple overbought resets above 80, this steep drop signals short-term exhaustion with traders locking gains
  

5. Intraday Structure

• You can see bearish divergence forming where price neared ATHs (~$613.18) while RSI & Stoch made lower highs
  
• That divergence plus rejection at +2σ VWAP = early topping behavior on the 15m timeframe
  

Start of wave a

• Post $613 tag
  
• Pullback to $608–$609
  
• +1σ VWAP support
  

Mid-wave a acceleration

• Next 1-2 sessions
  
• Sharp dip to $603-$604
  
• MTD VWAP mean
  

End of wave a

• Within ~3-5 days
  
• $588-$590
  
• Prior breakout base
  

Wave b "bounce"

• Late this or next week
  
• Rebound to $595-$600
  
• Lower high under prior peak
  

Wave c

• Following weeks
  
• Down to $540-$532
  
• 61.8% daily retracement