Bullish Thesis on RGTI (Rigetti Computing)

Swing-to-position | High Beta Momentum + Fundamental Inflection

1. A deep base followed by a violent expansion

RGTI spent almost ten months building a flat, forgotten base with low participation.
Then it erupted with a multi-hundred-percent move on real volume.
This kind of structure is classic for high-beta tech names that shift suddenly from neglect to aggressive re-rating.

The recent correction is a textbook post-parabolic digestion.
Price returned to the prior breakout zone, found buyers again, and held a higher low. That’s typically a sign of strength, not weakness.

2. A clean higher low after a major run

This is often the moment where the next leg begins.

The stock printed a capitulation low, reversed sharply, reclaimed key levels, and stabilized above support around 25–26.
When high-beta names form their first higher low after a parabolic advance, institutions usually prefer to accumulate because the risk becomes well-defined.

3. The downtrend break confirms an early trend reversal

The main descending trendline from the highs has now been broken.
Price retested that area and held.
From a structural point of view, this is one of the clearest reversal formations you can get: compression, breakout, retest, continuation.

The next logical liquidity area sits around 34–36.

4. Momentum is rotating back into speculative tech

High-beta and speculative technology are attracting flows again.
RGTI is one of the purest quantum computing names in the public markets, and it tends to outperform whenever risk appetite rises.
Right now, there is strong momentum coming back into these themes, which gives RGTI a favorable backdrop.

5. Fundamentals are improving quietly but meaningfully

Rigetti has expanded internationally, launched a new Italian subsidiary focused on scaling talent and operations, and secured a 5.8 million dollar contract with the U.S. Air Force for quantum networking.
Revenue also came in better than expected in Q3.
The stock pulled back on a small EPS miss, but that part of the story is already well digested by the market.

For a micro-cap, even moderate improvements have an outsized impact on sentiment and price behavior.

6. Clean air above current levels

There is very little resistance between 28 and the mid-30s.
Volume drops off in that zone, which often acts like a magnet during recovery phases.
If buyers continue to step in, the next natural target becomes the 34–35 range, followed by the 40–42 zone.

Price Targets

TP1: 34–35
Short-term, driven mostly by momentum and liquidity gaps.

TP2: 40–42
Medium-term, aligned with the next structural shelf.

Extended scenario: 55–60
If quantum computing gains fresh attention or if another government contract comes in, a move toward the old highs becomes realistic.

Risk Management

Small position sizing is essential because RGTI is still a speculative micro-cap.
A clean invalidation sits below 24.
Expect volatility, which is normal for this type of name.