RIOT Short

Market Structure:
RIOT is showing a clear transition from bullish to bearish structure. After forming a Higher High (HH) around $23.95, price failed to maintain upward momentum and broke below the previous Higher Low (HL) near $20.98, establishing a decisive Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside. This confirms a shift in market sentiment, aligning with the Change of Character (CHoCH) marked near $23.95. The overall structure now favors continuation lower unless buyers can reclaim the $22.40–$22.60 region.

Supply & Demand Zones:
The upper supply zone between $22.20 and $22.60 remains strong—price previously dropped sharply from here, leaving behind large bearish candles with minimal pullback, showing strong seller control. The main demand zone now sits between $20.00 and $21.00, where buyers last stepped in aggressively and caused a short-term bounce. However, given the bearish structural shift, this demand appears weakened and could soon be tested or broken. A deeper untested demand region is visible around $18.50–$19.20, which remains a more significant liquidity pool if price continues its descent.

Current Price Action:
Price is currently rebounding modestly from the mid-range of the demand zone but remains under short-term supply pressure. The projected path suggests a minor pullback toward $22.20–$22.40, followed by renewed selling interest and a continuation lower toward $20.00 or below. This pattern aligns with a standard lower-high formation before the next leg down.

Bias & Outlook:
The trade bias is bearish, anticipating a continuation to the downside after a corrective move. The expected direction is down toward $19.50–$20.00. A clean break above $22.60 would invalidate the bearish setup and signal that buyers are regaining control.

Momentum & Candle Behavior:
Momentum currently favors sellers, with recent impulsive bearish candles showing wider bodies and smaller wicks compared to the weaker bullish retracements. No reversal candle patterns are confirmed yet—just compression and retracement within the bearish leg.