$SMCI Weekend Analysis - October 2nd, 2025

SMCI broke out of the inverse head and shoulders pattern last week while also breaking through the weekly downtrend line, confirming a strong technical shift in momentum.

The measured move from this breakout points to $56.76, which also happens to be the gap-fill area from last quarter’s earnings drop. Holding above that level could open up a run toward $62.44, a major S/R zone from earlier in the year.

The MACD is also curling toward a bullish crossover on the weekly chart, which supports this bullish setup and could help push SMCI beyond $62.77 and into the 70s if momentum continues.

I’m comfortable with an entry around current levels as long as the breakout structure holds. A daily close below $47.21, however, would invalidate this bullish outlook and likely trigger a retest of lower support levels.