SPX500 Macro + Technical + Probabilistic Analysis

Published: June 3, 2025

🔍 Chart Breakdown (Daily | LuxAlgo + EW + SMC)
Structure Summary:

🔶 Wave Count: Completing Wave (5), with price nearing exhaustion

🔴 Weak High Zone: ~6,100–6,200 = liquidity magnet

🟥 Premium Zone: Between current price and 6,426

🟦 Equilibrium Zone: ~4,950–5,150

🟩 Discount Zone: ~4,150 = long re-entry or cycle bottom if correction occurs

📅 Key Timing Line: June 17, 2025 = potential reversal date (time-based confluence)

Volume Analysis:

🔊 Volume spikes at Wave 2 and Wave 4 suggest reactive participation

📉 Lower volume into recent highs suggests distribution, not accumulation

🔁 Multi-Timeframe Outlook
Timeframe Direction Probability Rationale
Intraday (15M) Bearish 60% Weak high rejection, premium zone swept, liquidity-based reversal
Swing (2–3 weeks) Bullish → Bearish 70% to 6,420 → then reversal Wave 5 completion into supply zone, followed by corrective ABC
Macro (Q3–Q4 2025) Bearish 80% Likely mean reversion toward equilibrium (5,000) or discount (4,200)

📊 Key Price Zones to Watch
Level Label Strategy
6,426 🎯 Wave 5 Target Look for exhaustion, divergence, or liquidity sweep
6,150–6,200 🟥 Weak High / Premium Possible fake-out zone or reversal trigger
5,900 🔵 Short-term support Likely retest zone on first rejection
5,150–4,950 ⚖️ Equilibrium Mid-cycle mean reversion target
4,150 🟩 Discount/Strong Low Long reload zone if correction deepens

⚠️ Risk Considerations
Macro Data Watchlist: June 12 CPI + June 17 FOMC = macro catalysts for Wave 5 peak

Invalidation: If price holds above 6,450 after June 17, EW count must be adjusted

Alternative Count: Parabolic Wave 5 extensions can overshoot — be cautious shorting early