SPY extended gains today, pushing into overextended territory relative to longer-term averages. The trend remains constructive, but the setup is becoming more two-sided as we head into October — a month historically prone to sharp market swings.
Bullish case:
Momentum remains strong within the broader uptrend.
A sustained breakout above 670–675 could open the path toward 690–700.
Bearish case:
🌍 Rising geopolitical tensions,
💱 Carry trade unwinding, and
🏦 The risk of no Fed rate cuts due to lack of supportive data,
combined with the seasonal October crash risk. Historically, October has been prone to sharp market selloffs (1929, 1987, 2008), adding seasonal risk., could ignite a 10–12% correction.
First warning sign: a breakdown below 660.
Deeper risk emerges if 645–650 support fails, which could accelerate downside momentum.
⚡ Takeaway: SPY is stretched — while upside targets remain valid, traders should watch these key levels as confirmation for either continuation or correction.
Bullish case:
Momentum remains strong within the broader uptrend.
A sustained breakout above 670–675 could open the path toward 690–700.
Bearish case:
🌍 Rising geopolitical tensions,
💱 Carry trade unwinding, and
🏦 The risk of no Fed rate cuts due to lack of supportive data,
combined with the seasonal October crash risk. Historically, October has been prone to sharp market selloffs (1929, 1987, 2008), adding seasonal risk., could ignite a 10–12% correction.
First warning sign: a breakdown below 660.
Deeper risk emerges if 645–650 support fails, which could accelerate downside momentum.
⚡ Takeaway: SPY is stretched — while upside targets remain valid, traders should watch these key levels as confirmation for either continuation or correction.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.