After diving deep into the STRK/USDT charts across multiple timeframes, I've identified what I believe is a critical inflection point for this asset. Currently trading around $0.181, STRK has staged an impressive recovery from its summer lows, but several technical indicators suggest we're approaching a decision point that will determine the next significant move.
The Recovery Story So Far
The price action tells a clear story: STRK suffered a brutal decline from April to June, dropping from $0.55 to around $0.11 – an 80% collapse. Since mid-July, we've witnessed a determined recovery that's brought prices back to the current $0.18 range, representing a near-doubling from the lows.
What's particularly interesting is the recent acceleration – a powerful surge from $0.12 to $0.18 in early October, followed by the current consolidation phase between $0.17-$0.19.
What The Indicators Are Telling Me
I'm seeing several technical developments that deserve attention:
The Main Oscillator has finally turned positive after spending months underwater – a significant bullish signal that typically precedes continued upside. However, I'm noticing early divergence between price and oscillator strength on the 4-hour chart, which raises some caution flags.
Looking at the oversold/overbought conditions, we've moved from deeply oversold readings below -40 in June-July to more neutral territory now. This recovery in the oscillator is encouraging, but the rapid move from oversold to neutral without a proper reset concerns me slightly.
The Volume Flow Indicator (VFI) shows improving buying pressure, but it hasn't yet crossed the threshold I typically look for to confirm sustainable momentum.
Perhaps most telling is the Mega Sell Signal Line consistently sitting at 2, indicating persistent selling pressure despite the price recovery. I'm not seeing the institutional accumulation signals I'd want for complete confidence in this move.
The Technical Structure
The market structure since July is undeniably bullish – we've established a clear series of higher lows and higher highs. However, the volume patterns tell a more nuanced story, with decreasing participation during recent rallies compared to the heavy selling volume during the decline.
I've identified these key levels that I'm watching closely:
Major resistance at $0.19-$0.20 (previous swing high)
Current resistance at $0.18-$0.185 (consolidation ceiling)
First support at $0.16-$0.165 (recent swing low)
Major support at $0.13-$0.135 (previous consolidation)
Critical support at $0.11-$0.12 (the summer bottom)
The Fibonacci retracement levels from the June low ($0.11) to recent high ($0.19) align nicely with these technical zones – particularly the 38.2% retracement at $0.159, which corresponds closely with my first support zone.
Elliott Wave & Wyckoff Perspectives
From an Elliott Wave standpoint, I see the recovery from July potentially forming:
Wave 1: The initial rally to $0.14 (July)
Wave 2: The pullback to $0.12 (August)
Wave 3: The extended move to $0.18 (September-October)
Wave 4: The current consolidation/potential pullback
Wave 5: Yet to form
If this count is accurate, I'd expect a Wave 4 correction to around $0.15-$0.16 before a final Wave 5 push toward $0.20-$0.22.
Through a Wyckoff lens, the current consolidation could represent either a "Last Point of Support" before continuation higher (bullish) or a "Distribution" phase before another decline (bearish). The lack of expanding volume during recent rallies has me leaning slightly toward the distribution interpretation.
Where STRK Is Headed
Based on my analysis, I see two primary scenarios unfolding:
The Bullish Case (60% Probability)
If STRK breaks decisively above $0.19 with expanding volume, I'm looking for:
Initial target: $0.22-$0.23
Secondary target: $0.26-$0.28
Maximum target: $0.30-$0.32
This move would likely take 4-8 weeks to complete and would require improved market sentiment and positive catalysts for STRK.
The Bearish Case (40% Probability)
If STRK fails at $0.19 and breaks below $0.16, I'd expect:
Initial decline to $0.14-$0.15
Secondary decline to $0.12-$0.13
Worst case: Retest of lows at $0.10-$0.11
The initial decline could happen quickly (1-2 weeks), with further deterioration dependent on broader market conditions.
My Trading Approach
Given this analysis, here's how I'm approaching STRK:
I'm watching for either a pullback to the $0.15-$0.16 support zone or a confirmed breakout above $0.19 with strong volume before considering new positions. The current level presents a somewhat awkward entry point given the mixed signals.
For risk management, I'd place stops below $0.155 for any long positions entered at current levels, and I'm keeping position sizes smaller than usual until I see clearer directional confirmation.
The Bottom Line
STRK has made an impressive recovery from its summer lows, but we're now at a critical juncture. While the medium-term structure remains constructive with higher lows and higher highs, the momentum indicators and volume patterns suggest caution is warranted.
The key question is whether STRK can attract sufficient buying interest to break above the $0.19 resistance with conviction. Without this confirmation, the risk of a deeper correction back toward the $0.13-$0.15 range remains significant.
I'll be monitoring volume patterns closely in the coming days – they'll likely provide the earliest indication of whether this recovery has further room to run or is approaching exhaustion. The next week of price action should tell us a lot about STRK's medium-term direction.
The Recovery Story So Far
The price action tells a clear story: STRK suffered a brutal decline from April to June, dropping from $0.55 to around $0.11 – an 80% collapse. Since mid-July, we've witnessed a determined recovery that's brought prices back to the current $0.18 range, representing a near-doubling from the lows.
What's particularly interesting is the recent acceleration – a powerful surge from $0.12 to $0.18 in early October, followed by the current consolidation phase between $0.17-$0.19.
What The Indicators Are Telling Me
I'm seeing several technical developments that deserve attention:
The Main Oscillator has finally turned positive after spending months underwater – a significant bullish signal that typically precedes continued upside. However, I'm noticing early divergence between price and oscillator strength on the 4-hour chart, which raises some caution flags.
Looking at the oversold/overbought conditions, we've moved from deeply oversold readings below -40 in June-July to more neutral territory now. This recovery in the oscillator is encouraging, but the rapid move from oversold to neutral without a proper reset concerns me slightly.
The Volume Flow Indicator (VFI) shows improving buying pressure, but it hasn't yet crossed the threshold I typically look for to confirm sustainable momentum.
Perhaps most telling is the Mega Sell Signal Line consistently sitting at 2, indicating persistent selling pressure despite the price recovery. I'm not seeing the institutional accumulation signals I'd want for complete confidence in this move.
The Technical Structure
The market structure since July is undeniably bullish – we've established a clear series of higher lows and higher highs. However, the volume patterns tell a more nuanced story, with decreasing participation during recent rallies compared to the heavy selling volume during the decline.
I've identified these key levels that I'm watching closely:
Major resistance at $0.19-$0.20 (previous swing high)
Current resistance at $0.18-$0.185 (consolidation ceiling)
First support at $0.16-$0.165 (recent swing low)
Major support at $0.13-$0.135 (previous consolidation)
Critical support at $0.11-$0.12 (the summer bottom)
The Fibonacci retracement levels from the June low ($0.11) to recent high ($0.19) align nicely with these technical zones – particularly the 38.2% retracement at $0.159, which corresponds closely with my first support zone.
Elliott Wave & Wyckoff Perspectives
From an Elliott Wave standpoint, I see the recovery from July potentially forming:
Wave 1: The initial rally to $0.14 (July)
Wave 2: The pullback to $0.12 (August)
Wave 3: The extended move to $0.18 (September-October)
Wave 4: The current consolidation/potential pullback
Wave 5: Yet to form
If this count is accurate, I'd expect a Wave 4 correction to around $0.15-$0.16 before a final Wave 5 push toward $0.20-$0.22.
Through a Wyckoff lens, the current consolidation could represent either a "Last Point of Support" before continuation higher (bullish) or a "Distribution" phase before another decline (bearish). The lack of expanding volume during recent rallies has me leaning slightly toward the distribution interpretation.
Where STRK Is Headed
Based on my analysis, I see two primary scenarios unfolding:
The Bullish Case (60% Probability)
If STRK breaks decisively above $0.19 with expanding volume, I'm looking for:
Initial target: $0.22-$0.23
Secondary target: $0.26-$0.28
Maximum target: $0.30-$0.32
This move would likely take 4-8 weeks to complete and would require improved market sentiment and positive catalysts for STRK.
The Bearish Case (40% Probability)
If STRK fails at $0.19 and breaks below $0.16, I'd expect:
Initial decline to $0.14-$0.15
Secondary decline to $0.12-$0.13
Worst case: Retest of lows at $0.10-$0.11
The initial decline could happen quickly (1-2 weeks), with further deterioration dependent on broader market conditions.
My Trading Approach
Given this analysis, here's how I'm approaching STRK:
I'm watching for either a pullback to the $0.15-$0.16 support zone or a confirmed breakout above $0.19 with strong volume before considering new positions. The current level presents a somewhat awkward entry point given the mixed signals.
For risk management, I'd place stops below $0.155 for any long positions entered at current levels, and I'm keeping position sizes smaller than usual until I see clearer directional confirmation.
The Bottom Line
STRK has made an impressive recovery from its summer lows, but we're now at a critical juncture. While the medium-term structure remains constructive with higher lows and higher highs, the momentum indicators and volume patterns suggest caution is warranted.
The key question is whether STRK can attract sufficient buying interest to break above the $0.19 resistance with conviction. Without this confirmation, the risk of a deeper correction back toward the $0.13-$0.15 range remains significant.
I'll be monitoring volume patterns closely in the coming days – they'll likely provide the earliest indication of whether this recovery has further room to run or is approaching exhaustion. The next week of price action should tell us a lot about STRK's medium-term direction.
Discord.gg/CryptoIndicators
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Discord.gg/CryptoIndicators
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.