Got a fresh long signal from my 4H EMA deviation strategy on SUIUSDT (Bybit).
After a persistent downtrend from the 2.3–2.0 area, price has flushed into my lower deviation / demand zone and is now extended from the main EMAs on several timeframes.
On the chart (#4h):
– Price is trading well below the 4H and 1D EMAs, Dev% on multiple TFs shows strong extension away from the mean.
– We just printed another local low with a cluster of my multi-TF “exhaustion” signals, right on the lower ATR band.
– Above price sit the first liquidity pockets around 1.66–1.69 and then a larger supply/FVG zone near 1.75–1.83, aligned with the 4H EMA ribbon.
– I treat this move as a liquidation / unlock front-run leg inside a still-resilient higher-TF range for SUI.
Strategy stats (for this 4H deviation system)
31 trades, all longs:
– Winrate ≈ 83.9% (26W / 5L)
– Avg win ≈ +12.5%, avg loss ≈ −6.6% → avg R:R ≈ 2.37
– Avg holding time ≈ 24 bars on #4h (about 4 days)
So the system is designed to take oversold 4H swings and ride the mean-reversion back into the EMA band / supply zones over 2–5 days.
Trade plan (swing 2–5 days)
– Entry: around 1.60–1.62 (current long triggered near 1.61).
– Main target: 1.75–1.77 — first 4H supply zone and mid of the previous distribution block.
– Extended target: 1.82–1.83 — upper boundary of the 4H supply cluster and confluence with higher EMA/ATR levels.
– Invalidation: 4H close below 1.48. That break would mean the current demand zone failed and I step aside.
This gives an R:R of roughly 1:2 from entry to the extended target.
Fundamental snapshot
SUI is still holding in the upper part of its yearly range despite the recent correction. Over the last 30 days:
– TVL around ~$3.03B (≈$1.64B bridged, ~$1.39B native), with strong DEX volume (~$383.5M/day) and perps volume (~$144.3M/day).
– Narrative tailwinds: upcoming USDsui native stablecoin from Bridge (Stripe-backed), institutional rails via Crypto.com custody/liquidity, and the Mysticeti v2 core upgrade from Mysten Labs.
– Headwinds: notable November unlocks (~$146.6M pool), TVL pullback of ~15% from the October peak and sector-wide risk-off in L1/alt space.
Net read: structurally positive fundamentals and growing ecosystem, but short-term risk is higher due to unlocks and derivatives positioning — ideal conditions for sharp but tradeable mean-reversion moves.
Alternative scenario
If unlock selling and risk-off pressure continue and SUI starts closing 4H candles below 1.48, I’ll treat this as a deeper leg toward the next demand around 1.40–1.35 and will wait for a new deviation signal rather than averaging down.
Not financial advice — just a structured 4H deviation long based on my system stats and current SUI fundamentals.
After a persistent downtrend from the 2.3–2.0 area, price has flushed into my lower deviation / demand zone and is now extended from the main EMAs on several timeframes.
On the chart (#4h):
– Price is trading well below the 4H and 1D EMAs, Dev% on multiple TFs shows strong extension away from the mean.
– We just printed another local low with a cluster of my multi-TF “exhaustion” signals, right on the lower ATR band.
– Above price sit the first liquidity pockets around 1.66–1.69 and then a larger supply/FVG zone near 1.75–1.83, aligned with the 4H EMA ribbon.
– I treat this move as a liquidation / unlock front-run leg inside a still-resilient higher-TF range for SUI.
Strategy stats (for this 4H deviation system)
31 trades, all longs:
– Winrate ≈ 83.9% (26W / 5L)
– Avg win ≈ +12.5%, avg loss ≈ −6.6% → avg R:R ≈ 2.37
– Avg holding time ≈ 24 bars on #4h (about 4 days)
So the system is designed to take oversold 4H swings and ride the mean-reversion back into the EMA band / supply zones over 2–5 days.
Trade plan (swing 2–5 days)
– Entry: around 1.60–1.62 (current long triggered near 1.61).
– Main target: 1.75–1.77 — first 4H supply zone and mid of the previous distribution block.
– Extended target: 1.82–1.83 — upper boundary of the 4H supply cluster and confluence with higher EMA/ATR levels.
– Invalidation: 4H close below 1.48. That break would mean the current demand zone failed and I step aside.
This gives an R:R of roughly 1:2 from entry to the extended target.
Fundamental snapshot
SUI is still holding in the upper part of its yearly range despite the recent correction. Over the last 30 days:
– TVL around ~$3.03B (≈$1.64B bridged, ~$1.39B native), with strong DEX volume (~$383.5M/day) and perps volume (~$144.3M/day).
– Narrative tailwinds: upcoming USDsui native stablecoin from Bridge (Stripe-backed), institutional rails via Crypto.com custody/liquidity, and the Mysticeti v2 core upgrade from Mysten Labs.
– Headwinds: notable November unlocks (~$146.6M pool), TVL pullback of ~15% from the October peak and sector-wide risk-off in L1/alt space.
Net read: structurally positive fundamentals and growing ecosystem, but short-term risk is higher due to unlocks and derivatives positioning — ideal conditions for sharp but tradeable mean-reversion moves.
Alternative scenario
If unlock selling and risk-off pressure continue and SUI starts closing 4H candles below 1.48, I’ll treat this as a deeper leg toward the next demand around 1.40–1.35 and will wait for a new deviation signal rather than averaging down.
Not financial advice — just a structured 4H deviation long based on my system stats and current SUI fundamentals.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.