Altcoin Market Cap ($TOTAL3) – Final Expansion Phase?

The altcoin market cap (excluding BTC and ETH) has just tapped one of the most important levels i.e. the 2021 peak zone around $1.13T. This level has acted as a major supply shelf for nearly four years, capping every expansion attempt since the last cycle top. With the latest pump, we may finally be transitioning from long-term balance into a proper expansion phase.

🔥 Structure

• Base Formation: Nearly 1600 days of base accumulation under the 2021 highs. Inside this, we saw multiple internal accumulation phases, each printing higher lows — good structural development before expansion.
  
• Flip Zone: The old ATH zone has shifted from heavy supply to potential value acceptance. If buyers can hold above this region, it sets the stage for the next leg.
  
• Measured move: On a simple range projection, the expansion target comes in between $3T–$4T, with room for a potential overshoot during a full-blown mania phase.

🎯 Expansion Scenarios

• Base Case: Acceptance above $1.13T and a grind toward $2T+. This is the minimal outcome if the breakout sticks.
  
• Optimal Case: Strong initiative buying and liquidity rotation out of majors into alts, pushing us into the $3T zone.
  
• Best Case (Mania): Full-blown expansion where late-cycle retail joins in. Here, market cap could overshoot into $4T–$5T before an eventual blow-off top.

🚨 Risks & Invalidations

• A failure back under $1.13T would flip this move into a deviation and likely trigger a long period of chop or retrace.
  
• Watch for responsive sellers around $1.5T–$1.8T, where first supply clusters may emerge.

What’s your read on this breakout? Do you think we’re setting up for a true alt season, or is this another fake-out before deeper chop?

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