US100 Technical Update – Supply Pressure at Highs, Demand Holds

1H Technical Zone Analysis
Zone 1: Major Supply / Rejection Zone
This area marks the upper extreme of the recent rally and represents a clear supply pocket where sellers previously stepped in aggressively. Until price reclaims and holds above 25,000, this zone should be treated as short-term resistance. A clean breakout and acceptance above could open the door to further upside continuation.

Zone 2: Intraday Resistance / Retest Level
This mid-level zone has acted as both support and resistance over recent sessions, making it an important pivot area. Price is currently testing into it from below; failure to clear this level may attract renewed selling pressure and confirm the zone as intraday resistance.

Zone 3: Key Demand / Short-Term Buy Zone
This is the most significant near-term support. Price reacted strongly from this level during the last sell-off, showing clear buyer absorption. As long as this demand zone holds, short-term market structure remains bullish. A decisive break below would likely trigger a deeper correction.

Sentiment and the most recent macro developments:
The US100 is holding near record highs, but the tone across markets has turned cautiously optimistic rather than euphoric. Investors continue to favor large-cap tech and AI-driven names, which remain the primary source of market strength. Falling bond yields and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut rates sooner rather than later are also helping sustain upside momentum.

At the same time, recent economic data has shown clear signs of cooling. The ISM Services PMI dropped sharply to 50.0 in September, signaling that the U.S. service sector, which drives most of the economy, has essentially stalled. The employment component within the report fell further into contraction territory, confirming softness already seen in the ADP jobs report earlier in the week. Combined with an ongoing government shutdown that delays official data releases, investors are trading in an information vacuum, relying more on expectations and positioning than hard fundamentals.

Overall, sentiment on US100 remains bullish but fragile. The index is being lifted by liquidity, AI optimism, and rate-cut hopes rather than strong macro performance. This creates a market that can continue drifting higher in the short term, but is increasingly vulnerable to reversals if inflation surprises on the upside or if economic weakness deepens beyond what investors currently expect.