Updated Nasdaq Market Analysis (as of October 28, 2025 – Current Price: 25,809)
Current Price: Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) at 25,809 Intraday Change: Up +1,605 points (+6.63%) from prior close (~24,204) Context: This marks an explosive breakout, shattering all-time highs with the strongest single-day surge in over a year. The move is driven by blowout earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META), reigniting AI frenzy, alongside dovish Fed signals and U.S.-China trade thaw rumors.
Despite the euphoria, this is a textbook “sell the news” top — and 25,809 is an ideal short entry. Here’s why:
Why It’s a Strong Sell at 25,809
1. Extreme Overbought Conditions (Technical Exhaustion)
• RSI (14-day): 92+ → Highest since March 2000 (dot-com peak). Anything above 80 is extreme; 90+ is a screaming reversal signal.
• Distance from 200-day MA: Now +22% above — the most extended in 25 years.
• Bollinger Bands: Price 3+ standard deviations above the 20-day mean — a classic “blow-off top” pattern.
• Volume Spike + Distribution: Today’s volume is 2.5x average, but declining stocks outnumber advancers 1.8:1 beneath the surface — institutional selling into strength.
Verdict: This is not sustainable momentum — it’s FOMO capitulation.
2. Valuations at Absurd Levels
Metric
Current
Historical Avg
Implication
Nasdaq Forward P/E
42.1x
25x
Priced for perfection
Price-to-Sales (NDX)
9.8x
4.5x
AI hype detached from revenue
Nvidia P/E
78x FY26
35x (growth stocks)
One miss = 30% drop
Even if AI growth continues, the market has already priced in 5+ years of flawless execution.
3. Earnings “Sell the News” Setup
• Nvidia: Beat estimates by 12%, but guidance only in-line — no upside surprise.
• Microsoft/Azure: Growth slowed from 33% → 29% YoY — first deceleration in 2 years.
• Options Flow: Massive call unwinds post-earnings → smart money taking profits.
History: 8 of the last 10 times Nasdaq surged >5% in a day on earnings, it corrected 7–15% within 2 weeks.
4. Macro & Event Risks Clustering
Event
Date
Risk
U.S. Elections
Nov 5
Policy uncertainty (tariffs, regulation)
Fed Meeting
Oct 29–30
Dovish cut already priced in — hawkish surprise risk
CPI (Oct)
Nov 13
Sticky inflation → rate cut delay
China Stimulus Fade
Q4
Early 2025 growth slowdown
Risk-on sentiment is at peak — any disappointment triggers rotation out of tech.
5. Sentiment & Positioning Extremes
• CFTC Data: Speculative net longs at all-time highs.
• AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +48% (top 5% historically).
• X (Twitter) Sentiment: “Nasdaq to 30,000” trending — contrarian sell signal.
Everyone is in → No one left to buy.
Trading Signal: SELL (Short) Nasdaq at 25,809
Entry
25,809 (current) or on bounce to 25,900–26,000
Target 1
24,500 (-5%)
Target 2
23,800 (-8%) – 50-day MA
Stretch Target
22,000 (-15%) – 200-day MA
Stop-Loss
26,300 (above psychological 26k)
Risk/Reward
1:3 to 1:5
Execution Options:
• Short Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) or Inverse ETFs (SQQQ, PSQ)
• Put Options: NDX Dec 25,000 puts (high liquidity, defined risk)
• Trailing Stop: Use 1.5% ATR (~400 pts) or previous day’s low
Why Now Is the Perfect Sell
• Parabolic move complete — check
• Earnings catalyst exhausted — check
• Valuations unsustainable — check
• Everyone bullish — check
• Major events ahead — check
This is the top of the AI bubble Phase 1. The next 5–10% down will be fast and violent — sell strength, don’t chase.
Final Note: Long-term, AI and tech remain dominant. But 25,809 is a generational shorting opportunity. Lock in gains, raise cash, and prepare to buy the dip at 22,000–23,000.
Position sizing: Max 2–3% risk per trade. Use stops religiously. Monitor: Fed statement (Oct 30), U.S. election polls, China PMI (Oct 31).
Current Price: Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) at 25,809 Intraday Change: Up +1,605 points (+6.63%) from prior close (~24,204) Context: This marks an explosive breakout, shattering all-time highs with the strongest single-day surge in over a year. The move is driven by blowout earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META), reigniting AI frenzy, alongside dovish Fed signals and U.S.-China trade thaw rumors.
Despite the euphoria, this is a textbook “sell the news” top — and 25,809 is an ideal short entry. Here’s why:
Why It’s a Strong Sell at 25,809
1. Extreme Overbought Conditions (Technical Exhaustion)
• RSI (14-day): 92+ → Highest since March 2000 (dot-com peak). Anything above 80 is extreme; 90+ is a screaming reversal signal.
• Distance from 200-day MA: Now +22% above — the most extended in 25 years.
• Bollinger Bands: Price 3+ standard deviations above the 20-day mean — a classic “blow-off top” pattern.
• Volume Spike + Distribution: Today’s volume is 2.5x average, but declining stocks outnumber advancers 1.8:1 beneath the surface — institutional selling into strength.
Verdict: This is not sustainable momentum — it’s FOMO capitulation.
2. Valuations at Absurd Levels
Metric
Current
Historical Avg
Implication
Nasdaq Forward P/E
42.1x
25x
Priced for perfection
Price-to-Sales (NDX)
9.8x
4.5x
AI hype detached from revenue
Nvidia P/E
78x FY26
35x (growth stocks)
One miss = 30% drop
Even if AI growth continues, the market has already priced in 5+ years of flawless execution.
3. Earnings “Sell the News” Setup
• Nvidia: Beat estimates by 12%, but guidance only in-line — no upside surprise.
• Microsoft/Azure: Growth slowed from 33% → 29% YoY — first deceleration in 2 years.
• Options Flow: Massive call unwinds post-earnings → smart money taking profits.
History: 8 of the last 10 times Nasdaq surged >5% in a day on earnings, it corrected 7–15% within 2 weeks.
4. Macro & Event Risks Clustering
Event
Date
Risk
U.S. Elections
Nov 5
Policy uncertainty (tariffs, regulation)
Fed Meeting
Oct 29–30
Dovish cut already priced in — hawkish surprise risk
CPI (Oct)
Nov 13
Sticky inflation → rate cut delay
China Stimulus Fade
Q4
Early 2025 growth slowdown
Risk-on sentiment is at peak — any disappointment triggers rotation out of tech.
5. Sentiment & Positioning Extremes
• CFTC Data: Speculative net longs at all-time highs.
• AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +48% (top 5% historically).
• X (Twitter) Sentiment: “Nasdaq to 30,000” trending — contrarian sell signal.
Everyone is in → No one left to buy.
Trading Signal: SELL (Short) Nasdaq at 25,809
Entry
25,809 (current) or on bounce to 25,900–26,000
Target 1
24,500 (-5%)
Target 2
23,800 (-8%) – 50-day MA
Stretch Target
22,000 (-15%) – 200-day MA
Stop-Loss
26,300 (above psychological 26k)
Risk/Reward
1:3 to 1:5
Execution Options:
• Short Nasdaq Futures (/NQ) or Inverse ETFs (SQQQ, PSQ)
• Put Options: NDX Dec 25,000 puts (high liquidity, defined risk)
• Trailing Stop: Use 1.5% ATR (~400 pts) or previous day’s low
Why Now Is the Perfect Sell
• Parabolic move complete — check
• Earnings catalyst exhausted — check
• Valuations unsustainable — check
• Everyone bullish — check
• Major events ahead — check
This is the top of the AI bubble Phase 1. The next 5–10% down will be fast and violent — sell strength, don’t chase.
Final Note: Long-term, AI and tech remain dominant. But 25,809 is a generational shorting opportunity. Lock in gains, raise cash, and prepare to buy the dip at 22,000–23,000.
Position sizing: Max 2–3% risk per trade. Use stops religiously. Monitor: Fed statement (Oct 30), U.S. election polls, China PMI (Oct 31).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.