Prepare for explosive move potential in US100

Market context

US100 has reversed the entire dump and is now coiling directly under a major supply band. Every pullback since the V-shaped bottom has formed a higher low and none of them have broken structure. Sellers keep defending the same yellow zone around 25700–25780 but each rejection has lost impact. That’s absorption.

The MAs aren’t rejecting price anymore. They’re flattening and starting to curl which usually shows the downtrend is done and the market is transitioning. Price is sitting in a tight range under supply with controlled candles instead of aggressive sell-offs. That’s exactly what you expect before a volatility expansion.

The squeeze being elevated here is the final piece. Low volatility coil under supply + higher lows + squeeze primed = pressure building. When the squeeze releases from this type of structure, it usually fires toward the side that’s been applying pressure. Buyers are the ones stepping in sooner each time, so the pressure is clearly up.

Clean liquidity is sitting above the recent HH inside and just above that yellow band. Everything on this chart points to that liquidity being taken first before anything else happens.


Key zones on US100

Support and demand
Major demand from the V reversal at 24600–24700
Intraday demand at 25100–25200
Most recent higher low structure around 25500

Resistance and supply
Main supply block (yellow zone) at 25700–25780
Liquidity sitting above the HH inside that band
Higher timeframe resistance at 26250

Structure
Higher lows stepping into fixed supply
Very low volatility coil
Squeeze primed
No LL since the reversal
Liquidity parked above price



Long setup through supply

This is the cleanest idea because the pattern is exactly what you want before an upside release: coiling, higher lows, weakening supply, squeeze loaded and obvious stops above.

What I need to see
A strong 1H close above the yellow supply block. Not a wick, an actual body close above roughly 25780. That confirms buyers finally cracked the ceiling.

Then a retest. Squeeze expansions often break then pull back once into the breakout zone to confirm it as support. That retest tells me it’s a proper breakout, not just a liquidity grab.

Entry
Retest zone for the long: 25730–25780
Trigger: a clean 15M rejection from that zone followed by a bullish close

Stop
Stop goes below the retest low and below the body of the old supply. Anything under 25600 is fine.
If US100 closes a 1H candle back inside the yellow zone after entry, I’m out immediately.

Targets
First target: 25900–26000
Second target: 26250
If the squeeze really opens up, US100 can run straight through those levels.

Short setup only if it becomes a sweep

I only consider a short when the breakout is fake. Coils like this usually break upward, but when they fake out, it’s violent. I want to be ready to flip quickly.

What confirms the sweep short
A spike above the yellow supply grabbing the HH liquidity, then a heavy rejection and a close back inside the zone.
Then US100 must break the most recent higher low on the 15M (around 25500). Without that break in structure, there is no short.

Entry
Short the underside of the yellow block on the retest or take the first clean 15M lower high after the structure break.

Stop
Above the sweep wick. If price trades above it again, the idea is dead.

Targets
First target: 25100–25200
Second target: 24800 area (origin of the V reversal)

Management and invalidation

Long idea
Valid as long as the last HL (around 25500) holds.
Lose that and I drop the long idea and prepare for the sweep short instead.
I am not trading the chop inside the range.

Short idea
Only valid after a sweep + break of structure.
Without both, I do not touch the short side because coils like this don’t normally break down first.



Summary

US100 isn’t showing weakness at all. It’s coiling under a ceiling with the squeeze loaded, volatility dying off and higher lows stepping into the same supply over and over. Sellers are defending one level and failing to push it down. That usually means the market wants the liquidity above the highs in the yellow zone. I’m looking to trade the break and retest long as my main setup. If it sweeps the highs, snaps back inside and breaks structure, I flip into the short. Otherwise I leave the range alone.