US10Y : Holding the 200MA

Mar 15, 2023

Bond yield had been dropping since SVB.

US10Y as well as US02Y fell until both hit the 200MA.

Lets see if it will stay where it is now or fall further.

But I think the next FOMC will decide. And watch out for OIL.

Good luck.

P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.

Mar 15, 2023

Note

Today might be the day it finally closes BELOW the 200MA. This surely mean the end to Fed rate hike. And most probably a rate cut instead. Until we get that confirmation, $ will bid as safe haven currency.

A BIG opportunity in EURUSD awaits.

Mar 16, 2023

Note

It seems the US02Y and US10Y is now trending BELOW the 200MA.
We also need to look at the 10s02s as well. Not long ago, it was inverted by more than 100bps. Today, the inversion is about 50bps.
As we all know, once it emerges from inversion, i.e. un-inverted, that is when we start counting to the next RECESSION. On average, it is 4 months!!!
I guess once un-inverted occurs, market will again do an adjustment/re-pricing exercise to all assets.

Mar 16, 2023

Note

The BEST trade NOW is definitely the USDJPY.
Now that the US10Y is more or less confirmed to be trading BELOW MA200, things get easier.
We all know USDJPY follows the US10Y-JP10Y
We know the JP10Y can't move much
If US10Y falls, which it most likely will ,USDJPY will FALL
If you want to know if your service provider is a brokerage or casino, now is the time
If they are a brokerage on commission, you still can trade USDJPY
If they are a casino, they are scared shit to accept bets.