UST 10Y Technical Outlook for the week Aug 11-15 (updated daily)
Overnight
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.27% on Friday, marking a fourth consecutive session of increases from a three-month low earlier in the week. This uptick follows market reactions to proposed tariffs on gold bars, President Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, and concerns over potential politicization of the Fed. Weak economic indicators, including a lackluster jobs report, a subdued ISM Services PMI, and rising jobless claims, have heightened expectations for an interest rate cut next month. Additionally, recent Treasury auctions for 10-year and 30-year notes suggest declining demand for US debt. Investors are now focused on the upcoming CPI report and other economic data for further clarity on the US economy’s trajectory.
Economic Release for the week myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Weekly Bias
Based on last week's market activity, the market tested the prior week's low and the previous month's low before rallying strongly to close within the prior week's range. For the upcoming week, I anticipate the market may target last week's high of 4.42%. Key economic data, including CPI and inflation figures, are scheduled for release on Tuesday. These figures are likely to introduce significant volatility, so close monitoring is advised.
**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Overnight
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.27% on Friday, marking a fourth consecutive session of increases from a three-month low earlier in the week. This uptick follows market reactions to proposed tariffs on gold bars, President Trump’s nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, and concerns over potential politicization of the Fed. Weak economic indicators, including a lackluster jobs report, a subdued ISM Services PMI, and rising jobless claims, have heightened expectations for an interest rate cut next month. Additionally, recent Treasury auctions for 10-year and 30-year notes suggest declining demand for US debt. Investors are now focused on the upcoming CPI report and other economic data for further clarity on the US economy’s trajectory.
Economic Release for the week myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Weekly Bias
Based on last week's market activity, the market tested the prior week's low and the previous month's low before rallying strongly to close within the prior week's range. For the upcoming week, I anticipate the market may target last week's high of 4.42%. Key economic data, including CPI and inflation figures, are scheduled for release on Tuesday. These figures are likely to introduce significant volatility, so close monitoring is advised.
**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Note
UST 10y Daily Bias July 12Overnight
On August 11, 2025, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note slightly declined to 4.26% from a recent one-week high. This movement reflects market anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with an 88% probability priced in for a 25-basis-point reduction at the next meeting and another cut expected by year-end. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, projected to show a monthly increase of 0.2% for July, down from June’s 0.3%, with the annual rate rising to 2.8% and core CPI expected to accelerate to 0.3%. Despite persistent inflation, market sentiment remains focused on potential monetary easing. Additional economic indicators, including Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales, and industrial production, are also under scrutiny for insights into the US economic outlook, alongside potential influences from changes in the Federal Reserve’s board or political pressures from the US administration. (source: trading economics)
Economic Release July 12 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
Following a subdued overnight market session, we anticipate market movements to contrast with yesterday's performance, driven by the upcoming release of key inflation data this evening. Both ends of yesterday’s trading range are likely to be tested, setting the tone for the remainder of the week. We recommend exercising caution and awaiting the inflation data before making trading decisions.
**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Note
UST 10y Daily Bias July 13Overnight
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note slightly declined to 4.26% on Tuesday, following a five-session rebound from a three-month low of 5.19% on August 5th, as reported by Trading Economics. This movement came after the latest CPI data showed annual headline inflation steady at a seven-month high of 2.7% and core inflation rising to a five-month high of 3.1% in July, aligning with expectations but reinforcing concerns among FOMC members about persistent inflationary pressures. Market sentiment shifted toward anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, bolstered by significant downward revisions to payroll data, which weakened perceptions of a robust labor market. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s 90-day extension of the US-China trade truce further eased concerns about trade war escalation, supporting expectations of monetary policy easing.
Economic Release July 13 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
There is no high impact release today. Initial jobless claims, PPI and retail numbers will be due Thursday and Friday.
Daily Bias
I anticipate the previous day's high of 4.318% to be targeted, with a potential for consolidation, as indicated by the Doji candlestick pattern at the previous day's close, suggesting market indecision.
**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Note
UST 10y Daily Bias July 14Overnight
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note slightly declined to 4.26% on Tuesday, following a five-session rebound from a three-month low of 5.19% on August 5th, as reported by Trading Economics. This movement came after the latest CPI data showed annual headline inflation steady at a seven-month high of 2.7% and core inflation rising to a five-month high of 3.1% in July, aligning with expectations but reinforcing concerns among FOMC members about persistent inflationary pressures. Market sentiment shifted toward anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, bolstered by significant downward revisions to payroll data, which weakened perceptions of a robust labor market. Additionally, President Donald Trump’s 90-day extension of the US-China trade truce further eased concerns about trade war escalation, supporting expectations of monetary policy easing.
Economic Release July 14 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
In yesterday's trading session, we expected the price to reach 4.318%, but market reactions to the interest rate cut expectation shifted the dynamics. Today, we anticipate the price may move toward the previous day's low, with a key target at the prior month's low (PML) of 4.187%.
**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Note
UST 10y Daily Bias July 15Overnight
On Thursday, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.24%, recovering from an earlier test of the 4.20% level, driven by an unexpected surge in producer prices that raised concerns about persistent inflationary pressures. Both headline and core producer price indices increased by 0.9% month-over-month, significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.2% gains. This sharp rise in producer prices challenged the recent disinflationary trend, contrasting with earlier tame consumer price index (CPI) data. The data fueled worries that expansionary fiscal policies and potential tariffs could hinder inflation from aligning with the Federal Reserve’s target. While markets remain confident in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, rate futures indicate reduced expectations for three total cuts in 2025. Additionally, concerns over tariffs and rising deficit spending have already led to lower bids from indirect bidders in the latest 10-year note auction.
Economic Release July 15 myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
Daily Bias
Following yesterday’s analysis, the prior day’s low of 4.227% was approached but did not breach the previous month’s low after the Producer Price Index (PPI) release. This underscores the importance of monitoring high-impact economic news. The unexpected rise in PPI has shifted market expectations, reducing the likelihood of three rate cuts, in contrast to the sentiment following Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Consequently, market sentiment has adjusted. For today, I anticipate a target of the previous day’s high (PDH) at 4.297%, with a potential extension to 4.317%. While I remain cautious about setting a definitive weekly target, the upcoming high-impact news releases could significantly influence market movements, leaving a range of outcomes possible.
**Disclaimer:**
The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.