Core PCE data, the inflation metric the FED pays particular attention to, is in focus today. Especially since the USD has maintained its strength post FOMC, with Thursday's bout of positive data boosting dollar sentiment further.
An October rate cut is still very much on the cards, but a December cut is looking less likely than it did a week ago. The USD 10 YEAR is very close to that 4.2 area.
Today's data could be very binary for the USD. I imagine the MOM number will be the focus, concenciuos 0.2, which is lower than last month's 0.3. if the data doesn't appease the market, the US strength will likely continue as a December rate cut becomes less likely. Alternatively, a lower number will likely see the USD weaken into the weekend.
What to trade? Keeping it very simple, simultaneous opposing USD and CAD (GDP) data could create a USD CAD trade in either direction.
If the US and CAD data aligns, it would be a case of gauging the risk environment according to the US data. There could be a number of permutations according to the markets mood. And I'll be keeping an eye on the S&P, the US 10 YEAR and the VIX.
My preference is for, either: 'hot data' creating a clear and obvious USD long trade.
Or: soft data creating 'risk on', which would likely mean a USD or JPY short trade, depending on if the JPY follows yields lower or (inverse) stocks higher.
An October rate cut is still very much on the cards, but a December cut is looking less likely than it did a week ago. The USD 10 YEAR is very close to that 4.2 area.
Today's data could be very binary for the USD. I imagine the MOM number will be the focus, concenciuos 0.2, which is lower than last month's 0.3. if the data doesn't appease the market, the US strength will likely continue as a December rate cut becomes less likely. Alternatively, a lower number will likely see the USD weaken into the weekend.
What to trade? Keeping it very simple, simultaneous opposing USD and CAD (GDP) data could create a USD CAD trade in either direction.
If the US and CAD data aligns, it would be a case of gauging the risk environment according to the US data. There could be a number of permutations according to the markets mood. And I'll be keeping an eye on the S&P, the US 10 YEAR and the VIX.
My preference is for, either: 'hot data' creating a clear and obvious USD long trade.
Or: soft data creating 'risk on', which would likely mean a USD or JPY short trade, depending on if the JPY follows yields lower or (inverse) stocks higher.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.