If the Dot Plots point to the first rate cut being after June?

Mar 19, 2024

Despite the FED intensifying its hawkish rhetoric at every meeting since December, the dovish market pricing in the SP500 continues. If the FED escalates its hawkish stance at tomorrow's FOMC meeting, we may see corrective declines in US stock markets, including the SP500, which are currently in a dovish pricing rally. The US inflation data coming in throughout the year shows a sticky outlook, not aligning with the dovish stance priced in by the market. The FED could intensify its rhetoric to cool down the market further. Especially if the dot weights in the Dot Plot concentrate after June for the first rate cut, the market could experience a significant correction.

Mar 20, 2024

Trade closed: stop reached