Nasdaq and Nvidia: Bubble Concerns After Peter Thiel Pulls Out

Nasdaq and Nvidia: Bubble Concerns After Peter Thiel’s Fund Pulls Out

Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades

Alarm bells are ringing again on Wall Street. Thiel Macro, the fund owned by billionaire Peter Thiel, completely exited its position in Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) during the third quarter. The move included the sale of 537,742 shares, worth around $100 million, adding to the sharp reduction of positions recently carried out by SoftBank (TYO: 9984).
These divestments have reignited debate over a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence sector, where Nvidia remains the leading force thanks to its dominant position in high-performance chips. Although the company continues to post record figures, some managers believe its valuations have reached levels that are difficult to justify—even under optimistic scenarios.

Rotation Toward More Stable Giants

After closing its Nvidia position, Thiel Macro has redirected its portfolio toward stocks considered more defensive within the tech sector, increasing exposure to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and taking a lighter position in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
This rotation suggests that some funds are beginning to prioritize companies with more predictable cash flows, stronger balance sheets, and less dependence on the AI investment cycle.

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals at a Key Level

The Nasdaq 100 maintains a long-term bullish structure, but in recent sessions it has encountered significant resistance after reaching an all-time high at 26,397.75 points, forming a range between 25,828.75 and 24,192.66 points, a recurrent zone since the beginning of the quarter.
Price action has fallen below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages in the last five sessions. The RSI appears to have corrected to 39.23%, indicating elevated oversold conditions, while the MACD shows a sharp decline, signaling a bearish trend.

All this is accompanied by an ActivTrades US Market Pulse indicator that remains neutral but is leaning toward risk-off, after one of the latest sessions marked by significant risk-off sentiment. This suggests a momentum of deleveraging and portfolio rotation, as previously mentioned.

If the lower boundary of the current range is breached, the next price zone would be the prior range around 22,777.75 points. Currently, the index is fluctuating near the lower end of the Point of Control, so in this pre-market a correction toward the range’s midpoint is expected—potentially bringing a recovery above the lost moving averages, if conditions stabilize on Wall Street.

AI Euphoria

The market appears to be torn between AI-driven euphoria and increasing nervousness as valuations become ever more demanding. The withdrawal of funds such as Thiel Macro and SoftBank adds psychological pressure at a time when investors are watching closely for any signs of exhaustion.


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