I. Technical Analysis
Chart Pattern:
USD/INR is currently forming a Bullish Flag pattern after completing waves (1) to (4) as per Elliott Wave structure.
The corrective wave (4) has concluded around 88.40 – 88.50 levels, aligning with support from trendline and Bollinger Band lower zone.
Wave Projection (Elliott Wave):
Expected Wave (5) targets are:
0.618 extension: 89.20
1.000 extension: 89.61
1.618 extension: 90.28
This suggests a bullish move towards 89.20 – 90.30 levels in the near term.
Momentum Indicators:
Bollinger Band squeeze signals upcoming volatility expansion.
RSI remains neutral-to-bullish, supporting further upside.
Technical View: Bullish bias as long as USD/INR sustains above 88.40. Upside targets at 89.20 / 89.60 / 90.30.
II. Global Economic Factors
US Dollar Drivers
The US Fed’s monetary stance remains a key driver. Persistently higher US yields and hawkish tone could strengthen USD further.
US economy shows resilience in labor and consumer spending, supporting USD demand.
India-Specific Macro
RBI has intervened intermittently to stabilize INR, but India’s current account deficit pressure (due to higher crude oil imports) adds INR weakness.
Capital inflows through FPI/FDI remain supportive, but outflows on risk-off sentiment could weigh.
Global Risk Factors
Crude Oil Prices: Sustained Brent above $95/bbl adds to India’s import bill, weakening INR.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Middle East tensions and Asian trade imbalances could fuel safe-haven demand for USD.
China Slowdown: Weak Asian demand environment indirectly pressures EM currencies including INR.
III. Risk Factors
RBI intervention risk near 89.50/90.00 levels.
Sudden reversal in crude oil prices.
Global risk-on flows into emerging markets, strengthening INR unexpectedly.
IV. Analyst View
Short-term traders: Buy on dips towards 88.50 – 88.60, SL: 88.20, Targets: 89.20 / 89.60 / 90.30.
Medium-term investors: Maintain cautious bullish stance; INR may depreciate further if crude oil and US yields remain high.
V. Methodology
Elliott Wave Analysis (Wave Count 1–5).
Bollinger Bands & RSI for momentum confirmation.
Macro drivers: Fed policy, RBI stance, crude oil dynamics, FII flows.
VI. Mandatory Disclosures
Analyst Certification: I/We hereby certify that the views expressed above are based on independent research and information believed to be reliable.
Conflict of Interest: The analyst(s) and entity have no financial interest or actual/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in USD/INR or related instruments.
Regulatory Note: This report has been prepared in compliance with SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 and amendments thereof.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Forex trading carries high risk due to volatility and leverage. Investors should consider their risk appetite before acting on this analysis.
Chart Pattern:
USD/INR is currently forming a Bullish Flag pattern after completing waves (1) to (4) as per Elliott Wave structure.
The corrective wave (4) has concluded around 88.40 – 88.50 levels, aligning with support from trendline and Bollinger Band lower zone.
Wave Projection (Elliott Wave):
Expected Wave (5) targets are:
0.618 extension: 89.20
1.000 extension: 89.61
1.618 extension: 90.28
This suggests a bullish move towards 89.20 – 90.30 levels in the near term.
Momentum Indicators:
Bollinger Band squeeze signals upcoming volatility expansion.
RSI remains neutral-to-bullish, supporting further upside.
Technical View: Bullish bias as long as USD/INR sustains above 88.40. Upside targets at 89.20 / 89.60 / 90.30.
II. Global Economic Factors
US Dollar Drivers
The US Fed’s monetary stance remains a key driver. Persistently higher US yields and hawkish tone could strengthen USD further.
US economy shows resilience in labor and consumer spending, supporting USD demand.
India-Specific Macro
RBI has intervened intermittently to stabilize INR, but India’s current account deficit pressure (due to higher crude oil imports) adds INR weakness.
Capital inflows through FPI/FDI remain supportive, but outflows on risk-off sentiment could weigh.
Global Risk Factors
Crude Oil Prices: Sustained Brent above $95/bbl adds to India’s import bill, weakening INR.
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Middle East tensions and Asian trade imbalances could fuel safe-haven demand for USD.
China Slowdown: Weak Asian demand environment indirectly pressures EM currencies including INR.
III. Risk Factors
RBI intervention risk near 89.50/90.00 levels.
Sudden reversal in crude oil prices.
Global risk-on flows into emerging markets, strengthening INR unexpectedly.
IV. Analyst View
Short-term traders: Buy on dips towards 88.50 – 88.60, SL: 88.20, Targets: 89.20 / 89.60 / 90.30.
Medium-term investors: Maintain cautious bullish stance; INR may depreciate further if crude oil and US yields remain high.
V. Methodology
Elliott Wave Analysis (Wave Count 1–5).
Bollinger Bands & RSI for momentum confirmation.
Macro drivers: Fed policy, RBI stance, crude oil dynamics, FII flows.
VI. Mandatory Disclosures
Analyst Certification: I/We hereby certify that the views expressed above are based on independent research and information believed to be reliable.
Conflict of Interest: The analyst(s) and entity have no financial interest or actual/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in USD/INR or related instruments.
Regulatory Note: This report has been prepared in compliance with SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 and amendments thereof.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Forex trading carries high risk due to volatility and leverage. Investors should consider their risk appetite before acting on this analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.