While the month of September on the stock market has seen the least favorable performance statistics, and the market is eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve's (FED) monetary policy decision on Wednesday September 17, a decisive macro-economic figure is published this Friday September 5.
The US NFP report is updated during the trading session on Friday September 5, and is the last monthly report on US employment before the FED meeting on September 17.
1) No pivot, technical pivot, healthy real pivot, unhealthy real pivot: the choice the FED has to make on September 17 is a real headache
Tariffs have been in place since August 7 and have begun to affect US producer and consumer prices. US inflation will remain closer to the 3% than the 2% threshold for several months, and it will take some time for the situation to normalize, probably from the beginning of 2026.
The FED is therefore in an uncomfortable position, as it also has the task of ensuring full employment, and the situation of the US labor market has deteriorated in recent months. If the NFP report on the US labor market on Friday September 5 confirms this deterioration, the FED will have no choice but to make at least a “technical” pivot. A cut in the federal funds rate to adjust to the weak labor market and neutralize any out-of-control rise in the unemployment rate in good time.
2) The US labor market has been on a worrying trajectory for the past 3 months, and the FED's warning thresholds are not far off
For three months running, the number of net new jobs created in the USA has been insufficient to absorb the new arrivals in the labor force. This minimum threshold is set at 100K net job creations per month, and the consensus figure for Friday September 5 is still below this threshold.
As for the number of unemployed in the US, it could hit a new 4-year high with the Friday September 5 NFP report.
3) The elements of the NFP report for Friday September 5 should therefore make it possible to set for good the likelihood of monetary action by the FED on September 17
This Friday, the market will therefore be looking at three figures from this Friday's NFP report:
- Unemployment rate
- The number of net new jobs created
- Wage growth, the link between inflation and the labour market.
Any upward tick in the unemployment rate to 4.3% of the working population, or any figure below 100K for net job creation, will make the scenario of a US federal funds rate cut on Wednesday September 17 all but certain.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The US NFP report is updated during the trading session on Friday September 5, and is the last monthly report on US employment before the FED meeting on September 17.
1) No pivot, technical pivot, healthy real pivot, unhealthy real pivot: the choice the FED has to make on September 17 is a real headache
Tariffs have been in place since August 7 and have begun to affect US producer and consumer prices. US inflation will remain closer to the 3% than the 2% threshold for several months, and it will take some time for the situation to normalize, probably from the beginning of 2026.
The FED is therefore in an uncomfortable position, as it also has the task of ensuring full employment, and the situation of the US labor market has deteriorated in recent months. If the NFP report on the US labor market on Friday September 5 confirms this deterioration, the FED will have no choice but to make at least a “technical” pivot. A cut in the federal funds rate to adjust to the weak labor market and neutralize any out-of-control rise in the unemployment rate in good time.
2) The US labor market has been on a worrying trajectory for the past 3 months, and the FED's warning thresholds are not far off
For three months running, the number of net new jobs created in the USA has been insufficient to absorb the new arrivals in the labor force. This minimum threshold is set at 100K net job creations per month, and the consensus figure for Friday September 5 is still below this threshold.
As for the number of unemployed in the US, it could hit a new 4-year high with the Friday September 5 NFP report.
3) The elements of the NFP report for Friday September 5 should therefore make it possible to set for good the likelihood of monetary action by the FED on September 17
This Friday, the market will therefore be looking at three figures from this Friday's NFP report:
- Unemployment rate
- The number of net new jobs created
- Wage growth, the link between inflation and the labour market.
Any upward tick in the unemployment rate to 4.3% of the working population, or any figure below 100K for net job creation, will make the scenario of a US federal funds rate cut on Wednesday September 17 all but certain.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.