Thesis: Price is pressing the 154.4–155 strong-high. I’m tracking a daily close >154.5 and a retest-hold for confirmation. Measured move points to 165 → 178–180 → 200 if momentum + volume align (Bulkowski, 2012; Edwards et al., 2013).
Key Catalysts (near-term relevance):
AI data-center CAPEX tailwind accelerating: Nvidia’s new multiyear push (up to $100B tied to AI data-center build-out) underscores demand for power/cooling infrastructure suppliers like Vertiv. (Reuters, 2025; Business Insider, 2025; WSJ, 2025).
Direct NVIDIA alignment: Vertiv highlighted 800 VDC power architecture and collaboration across the NVIDIA ecosystem—positioned for next-gen AI factories. (Vertiv IR, 2025a; NVIDIA blog, 2025).
Fundamentals still supportive: Q2’25 showed strong orders/sales/EPS with raised FY guidance, confirming secular demand. (Vertiv IR, 2025b).
Vertiv
Capital return signal: Ongoing dividend (declared Sept 3, 2025) signals confidence. (Simply Wall St., 2025).
Next checkpoint: Earnings window late Oct ’25 (est.)—sizing/hedging prudent into that event. (TipRanks; MarketChameleon).
Levels & Plan:
Trigger/confirmation: Daily close >154.5 or intraday retest-hold of 154.5 as support.
Stops: Below handle low (<148) or ATR(14)×1.5 below entry (whichever is farther).
Targets: 165 / 178–180 / 200 with scale-outs (30/40/30).
If reject: Watch 138–132 demand for a higher-low setup.
Options alt: 30–60 DTE 160/180 call debit spread or 145/135 bull put spread (defined risk).
Risk Notes: Index beta (QQQ/SOX), earnings gap risk, and headline sensitivity from AI-CAPEX cycles; avoid low-volume breakouts.
Not financial advice. For education only. Manage risk.
Key Catalysts (near-term relevance):
AI data-center CAPEX tailwind accelerating: Nvidia’s new multiyear push (up to $100B tied to AI data-center build-out) underscores demand for power/cooling infrastructure suppliers like Vertiv. (Reuters, 2025; Business Insider, 2025; WSJ, 2025).
Direct NVIDIA alignment: Vertiv highlighted 800 VDC power architecture and collaboration across the NVIDIA ecosystem—positioned for next-gen AI factories. (Vertiv IR, 2025a; NVIDIA blog, 2025).
Fundamentals still supportive: Q2’25 showed strong orders/sales/EPS with raised FY guidance, confirming secular demand. (Vertiv IR, 2025b).
Vertiv
Capital return signal: Ongoing dividend (declared Sept 3, 2025) signals confidence. (Simply Wall St., 2025).
Next checkpoint: Earnings window late Oct ’25 (est.)—sizing/hedging prudent into that event. (TipRanks; MarketChameleon).
Levels & Plan:
Trigger/confirmation: Daily close >154.5 or intraday retest-hold of 154.5 as support.
Stops: Below handle low (<148) or ATR(14)×1.5 below entry (whichever is farther).
Targets: 165 / 178–180 / 200 with scale-outs (30/40/30).
If reject: Watch 138–132 demand for a higher-low setup.
Options alt: 30–60 DTE 160/180 call debit spread or 145/135 bull put spread (defined risk).
Risk Notes: Index beta (QQQ/SOX), earnings gap risk, and headline sensitivity from AI-CAPEX cycles; avoid low-volume breakouts.
Not financial advice. For education only. Manage risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.